Ukraine’s leadership has continued to frame NATO membership as a core security objective and potential path to resolving the conflict with Russia, with President Zelenskyy stating on September 11, 2026, that accession would provide guarantees for Europe and could facilitate a diplomatic end to hostilities. NATO allies have reaffirmed support through recent aid pledges, including at the Ankara Summit and Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings, while recognizing Ukraine as a contributor to Euro-Atlantic security rather than a recipient. No official statements or diplomatic signals from Kyiv indicate willingness to accept a pre-2027 membership restriction, and ongoing bilateral engagements, such as with Canada, emphasize an irreversible path to full integration. These positions align with prior summit commitments and sustain trader consensus that such an agreement remains unlikely in the near term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$153,520 交易量
$153,520 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$153,520 交易量
$153,520 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s leadership has continued to frame NATO membership as a core security objective and potential path to resolving the conflict with Russia, with President Zelenskyy stating on September 11, 2026, that accession would provide guarantees for Europe and could facilitate a diplomatic end to hostilities. NATO allies have reaffirmed support through recent aid pledges, including at the Ankara Summit and Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings, while recognizing Ukraine as a contributor to Euro-Atlantic security rather than a recipient. No official statements or diplomatic signals from Kyiv indicate willingness to accept a pre-2027 membership restriction, and ongoing bilateral engagements, such as with Canada, emphasize an irreversible path to full integration. These positions align with prior summit commitments and sustain trader consensus that such an agreement remains unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$153,520结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s leadership has continued to frame NATO membership as a core security objective and potential path to resolving the conflict with Russia, with President Zelenskyy stating on September 11, 2026, that accession would provide guarantees for Europe and could facilitate a diplomatic end to hostilities. NATO allies have reaffirmed support through recent aid pledges, including at the Ankara Summit and Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings, while recognizing Ukraine as a contributor to Euro-Atlantic security rather than a recipient. No official statements or diplomatic signals from Kyiv indicate willingness to accept a pre-2027 membership restriction, and ongoing bilateral engagements, such as with Canada, emphasize an irreversible path to full integration. These positions align with prior summit commitments and sustain trader consensus that such an agreement remains unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$153,520结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETUkraine’s leadership has continued to frame NATO membership as a core security objective and potential path to resolving the conflict with Russia, with President Zelenskyy stating on September 11, 2026, that accession would provide guarantees for Europe and could facilitate a diplomatic end to hostilities. NATO allies have reaffirmed support through recent aid pledges, including at the Ankara Summit and Ukraine Defence Contact Group meetings, while recognizing Ukraine as a contributor to Euro-Atlantic security rather than a recipient. No official statements or diplomatic signals from Kyiv indicate willingness to accept a pre-2027 membership restriction, and ongoing bilateral engagements, such as with Canada, emphasize an irreversible path to full integration. These positions align with prior summit commitments and sustain trader consensus that such an agreement remains unlikely in the near term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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