Despite recent threats from US President Trump to withdraw from NATO amid allied reluctance to join military actions against Iran, including overflights and Strait of Hormuz operations, trader consensus reflects the alliance's enduring stability, pricing "No" dissolution before 2027 at 92.5%. Legal hurdles require congressional approval and one-year notice for US exit under Article 13, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed exit risks, and Estonian officials affirmed US defense commitments as recently as mid-April. Multinational capability initiatives launched in February and preparations for the July Ankara summit underscore unity, with defense spending targets advancing toward 3.5% of GDP. Late-breaking escalations or formal withdrawal notices remain the only plausible shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$73,780 交易量
$73,780 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$73,780 交易量
$73,780 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite recent threats from US President Trump to withdraw from NATO amid allied reluctance to join military actions against Iran, including overflights and Strait of Hormuz operations, trader consensus reflects the alliance's enduring stability, pricing "No" dissolution before 2027 at 92.5%. Legal hurdles require congressional approval and one-year notice for US exit under Article 13, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed exit risks, and Estonian officials affirmed US defense commitments as recently as mid-April. Multinational capability initiatives launched in February and preparations for the July Ankara summit underscore unity, with defense spending targets advancing toward 3.5% of GDP. Late-breaking escalations or formal withdrawal notices remain the only plausible shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
交易量
$73,780结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite recent threats from US President Trump to withdraw from NATO amid allied reluctance to join military actions against Iran, including overflights and Strait of Hormuz operations, trader consensus reflects the alliance's enduring stability, pricing "No" dissolution before 2027 at 92.5%. Legal hurdles require congressional approval and one-year notice for US exit under Article 13, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed exit risks, and Estonian officials affirmed US defense commitments as recently as mid-April. Multinational capability initiatives launched in February and preparations for the July Ankara summit underscore unity, with defense spending targets advancing toward 3.5% of GDP. Late-breaking escalations or formal withdrawal notices remain the only plausible shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$73,780结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent threats from US President Trump to withdraw from NATO amid allied reluctance to join military actions against Iran, including overflights and Strait of Hormuz operations, trader consensus reflects the alliance's enduring stability, pricing "No" dissolution before 2027 at 92.5%. Legal hurdles require congressional approval and one-year notice for US exit under Article 13, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed exit risks, and Estonian officials affirmed US defense commitments as recently as mid-April. Multinational capability initiatives launched in February and preparations for the July Ankara summit underscore unity, with defense spending targets advancing toward 3.5% of GDP. Late-breaking escalations or formal withdrawal notices remain the only plausible shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题