Institutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于欧盟在2027年之前解体？
欧盟在2027年之前解体？
是
1% 概率
$180,680 交易量
$180,680 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 概率
$180,680 交易量
$180,680 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Institutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$180,680结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Institutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$180,680结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETInstitutional safeguards, including the absence of any formal dissolution procedure and the requirement for coordinated action by a majority of member states or unanimous treaty repeal, underpin trader consensus that the EU will remain intact through December 2026. Recent developments, such as the European Commission president's September 2026 State of the Union address emphasizing resilience, new partnerships, and collective responses to external pressures, reinforce ongoing institutional cohesion. Economic integration via the single market and eurozone further raises exit costs for members. Low-probability shifts could still emerge from synchronized sovereign debt crises or major geopolitical escalations prompting realignment, though no such triggers appear active in the narrow resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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