Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$1,889结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,889结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 8.5% implied probability of OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting strong conviction in the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1 amid the Iran conflict's supply disruptions. Key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability commitments at the April 5 OPEC+ meeting, adjusting output by 206,000 barrels per day for May while navigating Strait of Hormuz blockades that plunged March OPEC production by over 7 million barrels daily. This coordination, backed by real capital at stake, underscores Saudi-led unity and OPEC+'s expanded framework. Realistic challenges include further Gulf defections or prolonged war eroding compliance, though historical precedents favor continuity through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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