OPEC’s active coordination of production quotas among core members, including recent adjustments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in May and June 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports, revising 2026 demand growth forecasts downward amid geopolitical disruptions like the Iran conflict, and holding ministerial meetings to manage supply amid shifting inventories and prices. UAE’s May exit highlighted internal tensions but left the organization intact and operational. While escalated Middle East conflicts or further withdrawals could introduce uncertainty, the sustained commitment to output coordination and market stability signals strong trader consensus that OPEC will endure through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,586 交易量
$29,586 交易量
2026-12-31
$29,586 交易量
$29,586 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC’s active coordination of production quotas among core members, including recent adjustments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in May and June 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports, revising 2026 demand growth forecasts downward amid geopolitical disruptions like the Iran conflict, and holding ministerial meetings to manage supply amid shifting inventories and prices. UAE’s May exit highlighted internal tensions but left the organization intact and operational. While escalated Middle East conflicts or further withdrawals could introduce uncertainty, the sustained commitment to output coordination and market stability signals strong trader consensus that OPEC will endure through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$29,586结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC’s active coordination of production quotas among core members, including recent adjustments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in May and June 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports, revising 2026 demand growth forecasts downward amid geopolitical disruptions like the Iran conflict, and holding ministerial meetings to manage supply amid shifting inventories and prices. UAE’s May exit highlighted internal tensions but left the organization intact and operational. While escalated Middle East conflicts or further withdrawals could introduce uncertainty, the sustained commitment to output coordination and market stability signals strong trader consensus that OPEC will endure through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$29,586结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC’s active coordination of production quotas among core members, including recent adjustments by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in May and June 2026, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. The group continues releasing monthly oil market reports, revising 2026 demand growth forecasts downward amid geopolitical disruptions like the Iran conflict, and holding ministerial meetings to manage supply amid shifting inventories and prices. UAE’s May exit highlighted internal tensions but left the organization intact and operational. While escalated Middle East conflicts or further withdrawals could introduce uncertainty, the sustained commitment to output coordination and market stability signals strong trader consensus that OPEC will endure through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题