**Trader consensus favoring no additional OPEC exits in 2026 reflects the recent stabilization after the UAE’s May 2026 departure amid the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions.** Iraq floated quota concerns in June but quickly reaffirmed its commitment to remain while seeking higher output limits. Venezuela faces speculation tied to shifting U.S. oil arrangements, yet reports indicate no near-term move, as quotas impose little immediate constraint on its modest production. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, have maintained coordinated production levels through September and October decisions, prioritizing market stability over further fragmentation. With the UAE exit already absorbed and no verified new departures since, the implied probability aligns with limited momentum for additional exits before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于37% 概率
$177,341 交易量
$177,341 交易量
2026-12-31
37% 概率
$177,341 交易量
$177,341 交易量
2026-12-31
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus favoring no additional OPEC exits in 2026 reflects the recent stabilization after the UAE’s May 2026 departure amid the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions.**
Iraq floated quota concerns in June but quickly reaffirmed its commitment to remain while seeking higher output limits. Venezuela faces speculation tied to shifting U.S. oil arrangements, yet reports indicate no near-term move, as quotas impose little immediate constraint on its modest production. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, have maintained coordinated production levels through September and October decisions, prioritizing market stability over further fragmentation. With the UAE exit already absorbed and no verified new departures since, the implied probability aligns with limited momentum for additional exits before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
交易量
$177,341结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETOn April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus favoring no additional OPEC exits in 2026 reflects the recent stabilization after the UAE’s May 2026 departure amid the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions.**
Iraq floated quota concerns in June but quickly reaffirmed its commitment to remain while seeking higher output limits. Venezuela faces speculation tied to shifting U.S. oil arrangements, yet reports indicate no near-term move, as quotas impose little immediate constraint on its modest production. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, have maintained coordinated production levels through September and October decisions, prioritizing market stability over further fragmentation. With the UAE exit already absorbed and no verified new departures since, the implied probability aligns with limited momentum for additional exits before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$177,341结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET**Trader consensus favoring no additional OPEC exits in 2026 reflects the recent stabilization after the UAE’s May 2026 departure amid the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions.** Iraq floated quota concerns in June but quickly reaffirmed its commitment to remain while seeking higher output limits. Venezuela faces speculation tied to shifting U.S. oil arrangements, yet reports indicate no near-term move, as quotas impose little immediate constraint on its modest production. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others, have maintained coordinated production levels through September and October decisions, prioritizing market stability over further fragmentation. With the UAE exit already absorbed and no verified new departures since, the implied probability aligns with limited momentum for additional exits before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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