Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, causing substantial damage that has limited access to facilities and stockpiles. IAEA verification activities have been curtailed since February 2026, with inspectors withdrawn amid ongoing conflict, though reports note no confirmed weaponization efforts and repeated Iranian statements reaffirming no intent to develop nuclear arms. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding includes explicit commitments against weapons procurement. These developments, combined with stalled enrichment and reconstruction challenges, underpin trader consensus that a completed nuclear device remains unlikely before the 2027 resolution window.