US-Israel airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in early 2026 severely disrupted uranium enrichment operations, as confirmed by IAEA reports showing extensive damage and no radiation leaks. The agency's February and April updates note Iran's pre-strike stockpile of 440 kg at 60% enrichment—near weapons-grade—but verification is hampered by access restrictions and destruction, extending estimated nuclear breakout time beyond 2027 amid rebuilding challenges. Recent Iranian proposals (April 27) defer immediate nuclear restraints while including the program in US negotiations for de-escalation, signaling diplomatic off-ramps. Trader consensus at 90.8% "No" reflects these setbacks and talks, though rapid covert reconstitution or failed diplomacy could shift odds.