Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key infrastructure and left substantial stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium unverified and largely inaccessible under rubble or in tunnels. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm inspectors lack access to these facilities and cannot confirm the current size, location, or enrichment status of remaining material, with no verified resumption of weapons-grade production. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending collapsed without restoring monitoring. Traders assign 95 percent probability to no nuclear weapon by 2027 because these setbacks extend any credible breakout timeline well beyond the market window. Late surges in clandestine activity at undeclared sites or rapid recovery of buried material could still shift the outcome before the deadline.