Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, including weaponization-related sites. IAEA inspectors were withdrawn for safety reasons and have had limited subsequent access, while Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible or under rubble. No resumption of proliferation-sensitive enrichment or structured weaponization activities has been confirmed by U.S. intelligence or IAEA assessments through early 2026. These setbacks, alongside diplomatic isolation and sanctions pressure, underpin traders’ strong consensus that Iran is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstruction efforts at surviving sites continue under close international scrutiny.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$194,692 交易量
$194,692 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$194,692 交易量
$194,692 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, including weaponization-related sites. IAEA inspectors were withdrawn for safety reasons and have had limited subsequent access, while Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible or under rubble. No resumption of proliferation-sensitive enrichment or structured weaponization activities has been confirmed by U.S. intelligence or IAEA assessments through early 2026. These setbacks, alongside diplomatic isolation and sanctions pressure, underpin traders’ strong consensus that Iran is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstruction efforts at surviving sites continue under close international scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$194,692结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, including weaponization-related sites. IAEA inspectors were withdrawn for safety reasons and have had limited subsequent access, while Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible or under rubble. No resumption of proliferation-sensitive enrichment or structured weaponization activities has been confirmed by U.S. intelligence or IAEA assessments through early 2026. These setbacks, alongside diplomatic isolation and sanctions pressure, underpin traders’ strong consensus that Iran is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstruction efforts at surviving sites continue under close international scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$194,692结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin, including weaponization-related sites. IAEA inspectors were withdrawn for safety reasons and have had limited subsequent access, while Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible or under rubble. No resumption of proliferation-sensitive enrichment or structured weaponization activities has been confirmed by U.S. intelligence or IAEA assessments through early 2026. These setbacks, alongside diplomatic isolation and sanctions pressure, underpin traders’ strong consensus that Iran is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test before 2027, though reconstruction efforts at surviving sites continue under close international scrutiny.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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