Iran's nuclear program remains severely constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes on key facilities in 2025, which damaged enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while leaving stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible and unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing negotiations with the United States over down-blending this material under international supervision, combined with reimposed sanctions and denied inspector access, have kept enrichment and weaponization activities dormant through mid-2026. Trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027 reflects these physical and diplomatic barriers, as Iran lacks confirmed capacity for rapid breakout amid active talks and external pressure. A sudden collapse in diplomacy, accelerated hardline decisions on deterrence, or covert reconstitution of damaged infrastructure represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$249,141 交易量
$249,141 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$249,141 交易量
$249,141 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear program remains severely constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes on key facilities in 2025, which damaged enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while leaving stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible and unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing negotiations with the United States over down-blending this material under international supervision, combined with reimposed sanctions and denied inspector access, have kept enrichment and weaponization activities dormant through mid-2026. Trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027 reflects these physical and diplomatic barriers, as Iran lacks confirmed capacity for rapid breakout amid active talks and external pressure. A sudden collapse in diplomacy, accelerated hardline decisions on deterrence, or covert reconstitution of damaged infrastructure represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$249,141结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear program remains severely constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes on key facilities in 2025, which damaged enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while leaving stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible and unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing negotiations with the United States over down-blending this material under international supervision, combined with reimposed sanctions and denied inspector access, have kept enrichment and weaponization activities dormant through mid-2026. Trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027 reflects these physical and diplomatic barriers, as Iran lacks confirmed capacity for rapid breakout amid active talks and external pressure. A sudden collapse in diplomacy, accelerated hardline decisions on deterrence, or covert reconstitution of damaged infrastructure represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$249,141结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETIran's nuclear program remains severely constrained following U.S. and Israeli strikes on key facilities in 2025, which damaged enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while leaving stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible and unverified by the IAEA. Ongoing negotiations with the United States over down-blending this material under international supervision, combined with reimposed sanctions and denied inspector access, have kept enrichment and weaponization activities dormant through mid-2026. Trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027 reflects these physical and diplomatic barriers, as Iran lacks confirmed capacity for rapid breakout amid active talks and external pressure. A sudden collapse in diplomacy, accelerated hardline decisions on deterrence, or covert reconstitution of damaged infrastructure represent the primary scenarios that could still shift probabilities within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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