Recent IAEA Board actions, including a September 10, 2026, resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such step in two decades—have prompted warnings from Iranian officials like Mohsen Rezaei that politicized pressure could drive NPT withdrawal. Tehran has suspended most IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 while facing unresolved questions over enriched uranium stockpiles, yet it has taken no formal exit steps under Article X, such as Supreme National Security Council approval or UN notification. Parliamentary withdrawal bills introduced earlier in 2026 remain pending, and statements frame potential departure as a conditional response rather than current policy. This pattern supports trader consensus that Iran will continue leveraging NPT status and threats for diplomatic leverage without completing withdrawal before the 2027 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
12% 概率
$539,549 交易量
$539,549 交易量
2026-12-31
是
12% 概率
$539,549 交易量
$539,549 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent IAEA Board actions, including a September 10, 2026, resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such step in two decades—have prompted warnings from Iranian officials like Mohsen Rezaei that politicized pressure could drive NPT withdrawal. Tehran has suspended most IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 while facing unresolved questions over enriched uranium stockpiles, yet it has taken no formal exit steps under Article X, such as Supreme National Security Council approval or UN notification. Parliamentary withdrawal bills introduced earlier in 2026 remain pending, and statements frame potential departure as a conditional response rather than current policy. This pattern supports trader consensus that Iran will continue leveraging NPT status and threats for diplomatic leverage without completing withdrawal before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$539,549结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent IAEA Board actions, including a September 10, 2026, resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such step in two decades—have prompted warnings from Iranian officials like Mohsen Rezaei that politicized pressure could drive NPT withdrawal. Tehran has suspended most IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 while facing unresolved questions over enriched uranium stockpiles, yet it has taken no formal exit steps under Article X, such as Supreme National Security Council approval or UN notification. Parliamentary withdrawal bills introduced earlier in 2026 remain pending, and statements frame potential departure as a conditional response rather than current policy. This pattern supports trader consensus that Iran will continue leveraging NPT status and threats for diplomatic leverage without completing withdrawal before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$539,549结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETRecent IAEA Board actions, including a September 10, 2026, resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance—the first such step in two decades—have prompted warnings from Iranian officials like Mohsen Rezaei that politicized pressure could drive NPT withdrawal. Tehran has suspended most IAEA inspections and declarations since mid-2025 while facing unresolved questions over enriched uranium stockpiles, yet it has taken no formal exit steps under Article X, such as Supreme National Security Council approval or UN notification. Parliamentary withdrawal bills introduced earlier in 2026 remain pending, and statements frame potential departure as a conditional response rather than current policy. This pattern supports trader consensus that Iran will continue leveraging NPT status and threats for diplomatic leverage without completing withdrawal before the 2027 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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