Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Perim Island and the port of Mokha, have sharply curtailed traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily crossings halving to around 15 vessels on September 12 from 30 the prior day amid a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping. Tanker transits have fallen even more steeply, averaging just 2.6–3 per day in recent tracking, as operators divert cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope or secure selective clearances, elevating freight costs and supporting Brent crude prices near $104–110 per barrel. This reflects aggregated trader assessment of ongoing risk, with volumes well below 2023 peaks but still above zero as non-targeted vessels continue limited movements. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi consolidation, potential Saudi pipeline or export adjustments, and any escalation affecting the parallel Hormuz corridor.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
9月30日
13%
12月31日
34%
$24 交易量
9月30日
$24 交易量
13%
12月31日
$0 交易量
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Perim Island and the port of Mokha, have sharply curtailed traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily crossings halving to around 15 vessels on September 12 from 30 the prior day amid a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping. Tanker transits have fallen even more steeply, averaging just 2.6–3 per day in recent tracking, as operators divert cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope or secure selective clearances, elevating freight costs and supporting Brent crude prices near $104–110 per barrel. This reflects aggregated trader assessment of ongoing risk, with volumes well below 2023 peaks but still above zero as non-targeted vessels continue limited movements. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi consolidation, potential Saudi pipeline or export adjustments, and any escalation affecting the parallel Hormuz corridor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$24结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Perim Island and the port of Mokha, have sharply curtailed traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily crossings halving to around 15 vessels on September 12 from 30 the prior day amid a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping. Tanker transits have fallen even more steeply, averaging just 2.6–3 per day in recent tracking, as operators divert cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope or secure selective clearances, elevating freight costs and supporting Brent crude prices near $104–110 per barrel. This reflects aggregated trader assessment of ongoing risk, with volumes well below 2023 peaks but still above zero as non-targeted vessels continue limited movements. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi consolidation, potential Saudi pipeline or export adjustments, and any escalation affecting the parallel Hormuz corridor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$24结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETRecent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Perim Island and the port of Mokha, have sharply curtailed traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with daily crossings halving to around 15 vessels on September 12 from 30 the prior day amid a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping. Tanker transits have fallen even more steeply, averaging just 2.6–3 per day in recent tracking, as operators divert cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope or secure selective clearances, elevating freight costs and supporting Brent crude prices near $104–110 per barrel. This reflects aggregated trader assessment of ongoing risk, with volumes well below 2023 peaks but still above zero as non-targeted vessels continue limited movements. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi consolidation, potential Saudi pipeline or export adjustments, and any escalation affecting the parallel Hormuz corridor.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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