Trader consensus around a 97.5% probability of no EU member state withdrawal before 2027 reflects sustained high public support for membership across the bloc, the absence of any government currently advancing Article 50 proceedings, and a political focus on enlargement negotiations rather than exits. Recent polling and party positions in countries such as Denmark and Poland show eurosceptic platforms either moderating or remaining in opposition without parliamentary majorities for departure. The multi-year procedural requirements for notification, negotiations, and ratification further reduce the scope for rapid change within the short remaining window. Unexpected domestic political shifts, such as a governing coalition collapse triggering a referendum in a large member state, represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是
3% 概率
$166,286 交易量
$166,286 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$166,286 交易量
$166,286 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 97.5% probability of no EU member state withdrawal before 2027 reflects sustained high public support for membership across the bloc, the absence of any government currently advancing Article 50 proceedings, and a political focus on enlargement negotiations rather than exits. Recent polling and party positions in countries such as Denmark and Poland show eurosceptic platforms either moderating or remaining in opposition without parliamentary majorities for departure. The multi-year procedural requirements for notification, negotiations, and ratification further reduce the scope for rapid change within the short remaining window. Unexpected domestic political shifts, such as a governing coalition collapse triggering a referendum in a large member state, represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$166,286结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 97.5% probability of no EU member state withdrawal before 2027 reflects sustained high public support for membership across the bloc, the absence of any government currently advancing Article 50 proceedings, and a political focus on enlargement negotiations rather than exits. Recent polling and party positions in countries such as Denmark and Poland show eurosceptic platforms either moderating or remaining in opposition without parliamentary majorities for departure. The multi-year procedural requirements for notification, negotiations, and ratification further reduce the scope for rapid change within the short remaining window. Unexpected domestic political shifts, such as a governing coalition collapse triggering a referendum in a large member state, represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$166,286结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETTrader consensus around a 97.5% probability of no EU member state withdrawal before 2027 reflects sustained high public support for membership across the bloc, the absence of any government currently advancing Article 50 proceedings, and a political focus on enlargement negotiations rather than exits. Recent polling and party positions in countries such as Denmark and Poland show eurosceptic platforms either moderating or remaining in opposition without parliamentary majorities for departure. The multi-year procedural requirements for notification, negotiations, and ratification further reduce the scope for rapid change within the short remaining window. Unexpected domestic political shifts, such as a governing coalition collapse triggering a referendum in a large member state, represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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