No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是
2% 概率
$166,286 交易量
$166,286 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 概率
$166,286 交易量
$166,286 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$166,286结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$166,286结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETNo EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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