Texas's longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests underpins trader consensus favoring Ken Paxton at 59.5 percent, though James Talarico's 40.5 percent share reflects a tighter-than-usual matchup. Paxton's decisive May 26 primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the nomination and unified much of the GOP base. Yet Paxton's prior legal issues and intra-party divisions have kept the race competitive, with recent polls showing margins under five points. Talarico's post-primary fundraising surge, statewide tour, and early media support have sustained Democratic momentum into early June. The November 3 general election timeline and potential third-party vote splitting add further uncertainty to the current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$473,323 交易量
$473,323 交易量
2026-11-03
肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）
60%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）
41%
$473,323 交易量
$473,323 交易量
2026-11-03
肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）
$272,043 交易量
60%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）
$201,280 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas's longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests underpins trader consensus favoring Ken Paxton at 59.5 percent, though James Talarico's 40.5 percent share reflects a tighter-than-usual matchup. Paxton's decisive May 26 primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the nomination and unified much of the GOP base. Yet Paxton's prior legal issues and intra-party divisions have kept the race competitive, with recent polls showing margins under five points. Talarico's post-primary fundraising surge, statewide tour, and early media support have sustained Democratic momentum into early June. The November 3 general election timeline and potential third-party vote splitting add further uncertainty to the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$473,323结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas's longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests underpins trader consensus favoring Ken Paxton at 59.5 percent, though James Talarico's 40.5 percent share reflects a tighter-than-usual matchup. Paxton's decisive May 26 primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the nomination and unified much of the GOP base. Yet Paxton's prior legal issues and intra-party divisions have kept the race competitive, with recent polls showing margins under five points. Talarico's post-primary fundraising surge, statewide tour, and early media support have sustained Democratic momentum into early June. The November 3 general election timeline and potential third-party vote splitting add further uncertainty to the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$473,323结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests underpins trader consensus favoring Ken Paxton at 59.5 percent, though James Talarico's 40.5 percent share reflects a tighter-than-usual matchup. Paxton's decisive May 26 primary runoff victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, bolstered by a late Trump endorsement, secured the nomination and unified much of the GOP base. Yet Paxton's prior legal issues and intra-party divisions have kept the race competitive, with recent polls showing margins under five points. Talarico's post-primary fundraising surge, statewide tour, and early media support have sustained Democratic momentum into early June. The November 3 general election timeline and potential third-party vote splitting add further uncertainty to the current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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