Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump that consolidated primary support. This outcome, combined with Texas's consistent Republican advantage in statewide contests, underpins trader consensus assigning Paxton a 60.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Recent late-May polling shows a narrow race, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 44% among likely voters, while lingering divisions among Cornyn backers and potential Libertarian vote-splitting introduce uncertainty. Talarico's Democratic primary victory and emphasis on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap relative to historical benchmarks, though the state's partisan composition continues to favor the Republican nominee in current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$459,846 交易量
$459,846 交易量
2026-11-03
肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）
61%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）
41%
$459,846 交易量
$459,846 交易量
2026-11-03
肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）
$264,719 交易量
61%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）
$195,131 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump that consolidated primary support. This outcome, combined with Texas's consistent Republican advantage in statewide contests, underpins trader consensus assigning Paxton a 60.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Recent late-May polling shows a narrow race, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 44% among likely voters, while lingering divisions among Cornyn backers and potential Libertarian vote-splitting introduce uncertainty. Talarico's Democratic primary victory and emphasis on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap relative to historical benchmarks, though the state's partisan composition continues to favor the Republican nominee in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$459,846结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump that consolidated primary support. This outcome, combined with Texas's consistent Republican advantage in statewide contests, underpins trader consensus assigning Paxton a 60.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Recent late-May polling shows a narrow race, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 44% among likely voters, while lingering divisions among Cornyn backers and potential Libertarian vote-splitting introduce uncertainty. Talarico's Democratic primary victory and emphasis on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap relative to historical benchmarks, though the state's partisan composition continues to favor the Republican nominee in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$459,846结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump that consolidated primary support. This outcome, combined with Texas's consistent Republican advantage in statewide contests, underpins trader consensus assigning Paxton a 60.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. Recent late-May polling shows a narrow race, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 44% among likely voters, while lingering divisions among Cornyn backers and potential Libertarian vote-splitting introduce uncertainty. Talarico's Democratic primary victory and emphasis on Paxton's record have narrowed the gap relative to historical benchmarks, though the state's partisan composition continues to favor the Republican nominee in current market pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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