Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, following Democratic incumbent Tina Smith's retirement, shows a durable structural advantage for the Democratic nominee. Major forecasters rate the general election Likely Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns, partisan voting index, and turnout among core voter blocs. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan maintain fundraising and endorsement edges ahead of the August 11 primary, while general election polling shows them ahead of top Republican Michele Tafoya by margins of three to seven points. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds include a pronounced national Republican wave, unusually elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary changes in candidate positioning or coalitions before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,723 交易量
$34,723 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$34,723 交易量
$34,723 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$23,618 交易量
94%
共和党
$11,105 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, following Democratic incumbent Tina Smith's retirement, shows a durable structural advantage for the Democratic nominee. Major forecasters rate the general election Likely Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns, partisan voting index, and turnout among core voter blocs. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan maintain fundraising and endorsement edges ahead of the August 11 primary, while general election polling shows them ahead of top Republican Michele Tafoya by margins of three to seven points. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds include a pronounced national Republican wave, unusually elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary changes in candidate positioning or coalitions before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
交易量
$34,723结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, following Democratic incumbent Tina Smith's retirement, shows a durable structural advantage for the Democratic nominee. Major forecasters rate the general election Likely Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns, partisan voting index, and turnout among core voter blocs. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan maintain fundraising and endorsement edges ahead of the August 11 primary, while general election polling shows them ahead of top Republican Michele Tafoya by margins of three to seven points. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds include a pronounced national Republican wave, unusually elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary changes in candidate positioning or coalitions before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$34,723结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, following Democratic incumbent Tina Smith's retirement, shows a durable structural advantage for the Democratic nominee. Major forecasters rate the general election Likely Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns, partisan voting index, and turnout among core voter blocs. Leading Democratic primary contenders Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan maintain fundraising and endorsement edges ahead of the August 11 primary, while general election polling shows them ahead of top Republican Michele Tafoya by margins of three to seven points. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects these fundamentals and the absence of major disruptions. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds include a pronounced national Republican wave, unusually elevated GOP turnout, or significant post-primary changes in candidate positioning or coalitions before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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