**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats. Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
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民主党
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最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$163 交易量
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民主党
$478 交易量
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats.
Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
交易量
$641结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats.
Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$641结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats. Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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