Iowa's Republican lean and the open Senate seat after Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold, reinforced by Ashley Hinson's decisive primary victory and Trump endorsement. Josh Turek's Democratic nomination after the June 2 primaries introduces a competitive profile through his Paralympian background and rural outreach efforts, reflected in a recent even 46-46 poll. Structural advantages in the state, including consistent Republican performance in federal contests, continue to support the current 60% Republican implied probability, with limited Democratic upside absent major shifts before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$121,867 交易量
$121,867 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
60%
民主党
41%
$121,867 交易量
$121,867 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$56,779 交易量
60%
民主党
$65,088 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's Republican lean and the open Senate seat after Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold, reinforced by Ashley Hinson's decisive primary victory and Trump endorsement. Josh Turek's Democratic nomination after the June 2 primaries introduces a competitive profile through his Paralympian background and rural outreach efforts, reflected in a recent even 46-46 poll. Structural advantages in the state, including consistent Republican performance in federal contests, continue to support the current 60% Republican implied probability, with limited Democratic upside absent major shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
交易量
$121,867结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's Republican lean and the open Senate seat after Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold, reinforced by Ashley Hinson's decisive primary victory and Trump endorsement. Josh Turek's Democratic nomination after the June 2 primaries introduces a competitive profile through his Paralympian background and rural outreach efforts, reflected in a recent even 46-46 poll. Structural advantages in the state, including consistent Republican performance in federal contests, continue to support the current 60% Republican implied probability, with limited Democratic upside absent major shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$121,867结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's Republican lean and the open Senate seat after Joni Ernst's retirement anchor trader expectations for a GOP hold, reinforced by Ashley Hinson's decisive primary victory and Trump endorsement. Josh Turek's Democratic nomination after the June 2 primaries introduces a competitive profile through his Paralympian background and rural outreach efforts, reflected in a recent even 46-46 poll. Structural advantages in the state, including consistent Republican performance in federal contests, continue to support the current 60% Republican implied probability, with limited Democratic upside absent major shifts before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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