Thomas Chalifoux holds the leading position in trader consensus for the August 18, 2026, Republican primary in Florida’s 9th Congressional District, reflecting his status as the party’s 2024 nominee and prior general-election experience against incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Redistricting signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis earlier this year shifted the seat toward a stronger Republican lean, prompting several candidates—including Army veteran Marcus Carter, Jorge Malavet, Air Force veteran Howard Steven Rance (who qualified in early June), and Justin Story—to enter the field. With qualifying recently concluded, the market pricing indicates Chalifoux’s name recognition and military background position him ahead in a multi-candidate primary where no single challenger has yet consolidated broad support.