**Ben Butler leads the FL-09 Republican primary market at 48.3% as traders assess his advantages heading into the August 18 vote.** The district, redrawn earlier this year by Florida Republicans, now leans Republican and features an open primary against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto. Butler, a ninth-generation Floridian and dairy/cattle farmer with prior service on the South Florida Water Management District board, has secured recent endorsements including from the Florida Airboat Association and maintains strong local name recognition in core counties. Thomas Chalifoux (27.0%), a retired Army colonel and business owner who has raised over $3 million, trails despite heavy spending, while Dan Green (16.0%) and Jorge Martinez (11.3%) draw support from their Pentagon experience and other backgrounds but show less consolidated backing. With the primary imminent, market pricing reflects assessments of grassroots momentum, endorsements, and turnout patterns in the final stretch.