Catalina Lauf holds the lead in the Republican primary for Florida’s open 19th congressional district seat, vacated by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid, with the August 18 contest featuring a crowded field of candidates including former officeholders and newcomers. Trader consensus assigns her the highest probability, followed by Jim Schwartzel and Jim Oberweis, reflecting assessments of name recognition, fundraising, and alignment with district voters in this solidly Republican area. Madison Cawthorn, Spencer Roach, and Bob Rommel trail with lower implied probabilities amid the multi-candidate dynamics typical of open-seat primaries. No major developments in the past 30 days have notably shifted positioning ahead of the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Catalina Lauf 52%
吉姆·施瓦茨尔 18.9%
吉姆·奥伯韦斯 11.2%
马迪逊·考索恩 9.8%
$24,297 交易量
$24,297 交易量
2026-08-18
Catalina Lauf
52%
吉姆·施瓦茨尔
19%
吉姆·奥伯韦斯
11%
马迪逊·考索恩
10%
斯宾塞·罗奇
7%
鲍勃·罗梅尔
2%
Catalina Lauf 52%
吉姆·施瓦茨尔 18.9%
吉姆·奥伯韦斯 11.2%
马迪逊·考索恩 9.8%
$24,297 交易量
$24,297 交易量
2026-08-18
Catalina Lauf
$17,419 交易量
52%
吉姆·施瓦茨尔
$988 交易量
19%
吉姆·奥伯韦斯
$2,828 交易量
11%
马迪逊·考索恩
$1,440 交易量
10%
斯宾塞·罗奇
$703 交易量
7%
鲍勃·罗梅尔
$920 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf holds the lead in the Republican primary for Florida’s open 19th congressional district seat, vacated by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid, with the August 18 contest featuring a crowded field of candidates including former officeholders and newcomers. Trader consensus assigns her the highest probability, followed by Jim Schwartzel and Jim Oberweis, reflecting assessments of name recognition, fundraising, and alignment with district voters in this solidly Republican area. Madison Cawthorn, Spencer Roach, and Bob Rommel trail with lower implied probabilities amid the multi-candidate dynamics typical of open-seat primaries. No major developments in the past 30 days have notably shifted positioning ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$24,297结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Catalina Lauf holds the lead in the Republican primary for Florida’s open 19th congressional district seat, vacated by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid, with the August 18 contest featuring a crowded field of candidates including former officeholders and newcomers. Trader consensus assigns her the highest probability, followed by Jim Schwartzel and Jim Oberweis, reflecting assessments of name recognition, fundraising, and alignment with district voters in this solidly Republican area. Madison Cawthorn, Spencer Roach, and Bob Rommel trail with lower implied probabilities amid the multi-candidate dynamics typical of open-seat primaries. No major developments in the past 30 days have notably shifted positioning ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$24,297结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Catalina Lauf holds the lead in the Republican primary for Florida’s open 19th congressional district seat, vacated by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid, with the August 18 contest featuring a crowded field of candidates including former officeholders and newcomers. Trader consensus assigns her the highest probability, followed by Jim Schwartzel and Jim Oberweis, reflecting assessments of name recognition, fundraising, and alignment with district voters in this solidly Republican area. Madison Cawthorn, Spencer Roach, and Bob Rommel trail with lower implied probabilities amid the multi-candidate dynamics typical of open-seat primaries. No major developments in the past 30 days have notably shifted positioning ahead of the primary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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