Michael Carbonara leads the FL-22 Republican primary field at 78% implied probability ahead of the August 18 contest, reflecting trader assessment of his early entry, established organization, and positioning after redistricting altered the district's boundaries from Broward-focused lines. Other declared candidates, including Belinda Keiser, Casey Askar, David Burck, Terri Hasdorff, and Michael Thompson, register lower shares consistent with limited statewide visibility and fewer reported endorsements or fundraising totals at this stage. The race remains open with two weeks until voting, allowing for shifts driven by final turnout in South Florida precincts or any late campaign developments.