Republican incumbent Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November general election. The solidly Republican-leaning seat, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, combined with Obernolte's prior victories exceeding 60 percent, underpins trader consensus on his party's strong advantage. The June 2 primary advanced Obernolte alongside Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, confirming a straightforward matchup without significant intra-party challenges or last-minute disruptions. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or external events further align with the current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,484 交易量
$10,484 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
85%
民主党
14%
$10,484 交易量
$10,484 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$7,370 交易量
85%
民主党
$3,115 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November general election. The solidly Republican-leaning seat, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, combined with Obernolte's prior victories exceeding 60 percent, underpins trader consensus on his party's strong advantage. The June 2 primary advanced Obernolte alongside Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, confirming a straightforward matchup without significant intra-party challenges or last-minute disruptions. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or external events further align with the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$10,484结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November general election. The solidly Republican-leaning seat, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, combined with Obernolte's prior victories exceeding 60 percent, underpins trader consensus on his party's strong advantage. The June 2 primary advanced Obernolte alongside Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, confirming a straightforward matchup without significant intra-party challenges or last-minute disruptions. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or external events further align with the current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,484结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November general election. The solidly Republican-leaning seat, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, combined with Obernolte's prior victories exceeding 60 percent, underpins trader consensus on his party's strong advantage. The June 2 primary advanced Obernolte alongside Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, confirming a straightforward matchup without significant intra-party challenges or last-minute disruptions. Historical patterns in similar districts and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or external events further align with the current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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