Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$60,915 交易量
$60,915 交易量
2026-11-02
杰伊·奥伯诺尔特（共和党）
93%
Tessa Lynn Hodge（民主党）
6%
$60,915 交易量
$60,915 交易量
2026-11-02
杰伊·奥伯诺尔特（共和党）
$28,704 交易量
93%
Tessa Lynn Hodge（民主党）
$32,211 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$60,915结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$60,915结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETIncumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding lead in the California 23rd congressional district race, reflecting the district’s Republican lean, demonstrated by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a registration edge favoring his party. Obernolte advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote, while Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge secured the second spot at 21 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, and Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising advantage with over $1.5 million raised and substantial cash on hand compared with Hodge’s limited resources. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though a late national Democratic surge, unforeseen scandal, or health event could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题