Trader consensus favors the CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its consistent polling lead around 21% in the latest INSA survey from April 7-14, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD black-red coalition has stabilized after the chaotic prior red-red-green government, bolstering CDU support amid opposition fragmentation under proportional representation. Recent polls show minor SPD gains and Linke declines, but no shifts challenge CDU's frontrunner status, with upcoming campaign events potentially influencing the tight race for second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于基民盟 53%
格林党 15.7%
林克党 14%
德国选择党 9.7%
$2,579,527 交易量
$2,579,527 交易量
2026-09-20
基民盟
53%
格林党
16%
林克党
14%
德国选择党
10%
社民党
8%
BSW
<1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 53%
格林党 15.7%
林克党 14%
德国选择党 9.7%
$2,579,527 交易量
$2,579,527 交易量
2026-09-20
基民盟
$15,939 交易量
53%
格林党
$28,553 交易量
16%
林克党
$12,724 交易量
14%
德国选择党
$2,188,645 交易量
10%
社民党
$288,618 交易量
8%
BSW
$27,004 交易量
<1%
自民党
$10,696 交易量
<1%
FW
$7,348 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its consistent polling lead around 21% in the latest INSA survey from April 7-14, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD black-red coalition has stabilized after the chaotic prior red-red-green government, bolstering CDU support amid opposition fragmentation under proportional representation. Recent polls show minor SPD gains and Linke declines, but no shifts challenge CDU's frontrunner status, with upcoming campaign events potentially influencing the tight race for second place.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$2,579,527结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors the CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its consistent polling lead around 21% in the latest INSA survey from April 7-14, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD black-red coalition has stabilized after the chaotic prior red-red-green government, bolstering CDU support amid opposition fragmentation under proportional representation. Recent polls show minor SPD gains and Linke declines, but no shifts challenge CDU's frontrunner status, with upcoming campaign events potentially influencing the tight race for second place.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$2,579,527结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the CDU with 53% implied probability to win the most votes in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its consistent polling lead around 21% in the latest INSA survey from April 7-14, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, Grüne and Linke at 15%. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD black-red coalition has stabilized after the chaotic prior red-red-green government, bolstering CDU support amid opposition fragmentation under proportional representation. Recent polls show minor SPD gains and Linke declines, but no shifts challenge CDU's frontrunner status, with upcoming campaign events potentially influencing the tight race for second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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