Recent polling shows a narrow four-way contest for the top spots in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the CDU and Linke trading narrow leads near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Grüne. This positioning leaves second place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preference among these parties, as reflected in the current trader consensus. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition appears short of a majority on present numbers, while coalition math and turnout dynamics in key districts add uncertainty. Final campaign events, turnout differentials, or late polling adjustments could quickly reorder the finish and alter implied probabilities for second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于基民盟 44%
Linke 27%
AfD 27%
格林党 6%
$33,053 交易量
$33,053 交易量
2026-09-20
基民盟
44%
Linke
27%
AfD
27%
格林党
6%
社民党
2%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
基民盟 44%
Linke 27%
AfD 27%
格林党 6%
$33,053 交易量
$33,053 交易量
2026-09-20
基民盟
$6,050 交易量
44%
Linke
$7,742 交易量
27%
AfD
$7,528 交易量
27%
格林党
$6,048 交易量
6%
社民党
$3,576 交易量
2%
自民党
$686 交易量
<1%
FW
$640 交易量
<1%
BSW
$783 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polling shows a narrow four-way contest for the top spots in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the CDU and Linke trading narrow leads near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Grüne. This positioning leaves second place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preference among these parties, as reflected in the current trader consensus. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition appears short of a majority on present numbers, while coalition math and turnout dynamics in key districts add uncertainty. Final campaign events, turnout differentials, or late polling adjustments could quickly reorder the finish and alter implied probabilities for second place.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
交易量
$33,053结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polling shows a narrow four-way contest for the top spots in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the CDU and Linke trading narrow leads near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Grüne. This positioning leaves second place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preference among these parties, as reflected in the current trader consensus. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition appears short of a majority on present numbers, while coalition math and turnout dynamics in key districts add uncertainty. Final campaign events, turnout differentials, or late polling adjustments could quickly reorder the finish and alter implied probabilities for second place.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$33,053结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETRecent polling shows a narrow four-way contest for the top spots in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the CDU and Linke trading narrow leads near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Grüne. This positioning leaves second place highly sensitive to small shifts in voter preference among these parties, as reflected in the current trader consensus. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition appears short of a majority on present numbers, while coalition math and turnout dynamics in key districts add uncertainty. Final campaign events, turnout differentials, or late polling adjustments could quickly reorder the finish and alter implied probabilities for second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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