The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-12-31
绿党
88%
社民党
85%
Linke
54%
基民盟
42%
德国选择党
6%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
$2,894 交易量
绿党
$83 交易量
88%
社民党
$104 交易量
85%
Linke
$339 交易量
54%
基民盟
$271 交易量
42%
德国选择党
$1,098 交易量
6%
FDP
$146 交易量
5%
BSW
$280 交易量
4%
FW
$573 交易量
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
交易量
$2,894结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
交易量
$2,894结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The upcoming Berlin state election on 20 September 2026 is the central driver of trader focus on the next Abgeordnetenhaus coalition, with the current CDU–SPD grand coalition under pressure from recent polling trends showing a fragmented five-party parliament. The CDU’s lead candidate shift to Stefan Evers followed Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid the tennis-gate scandal, while governance critiques over the December power outage and housing shortages have weighed on the incumbents. Recent surveys indicate Die Linke and the Greens as potential kingmakers, with CDU–SPD combinations falling short of a majority and alternative arrangements such as red-red-green facing arithmetic and policy hurdles around expropriation and urban development. Coalition negotiations after the vote will determine the outcome, consistent with Berlin’s history of multi-party deals in a closely contested field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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