The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz holds due to strong mutual incentives against early dissolution, as both partners face historically low polling and worse results from snap elections amid AfD gains in recent eastern state votes. Recent AfD victories have sharpened policy disputes, prompting SPD calls for revisions to planned pension, care, and budget measures, yet party leaders have publicly ruled out collapse while their support hovers near record lows. Formal coalition agreements, the government's Bundestag majority, and Germany's pattern of durable grand coalitions reinforce continuity through 2026, outweighing short-term frictions. Traders price the implied probability of survival accordingly, viewing structural barriers and shared electoral risks as the dominant stabilizers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
16% 概率
$76,348 交易量
$76,348 交易量
2026-12-31
是
16% 概率
$76,348 交易量
$76,348 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz holds due to strong mutual incentives against early dissolution, as both partners face historically low polling and worse results from snap elections amid AfD gains in recent eastern state votes. Recent AfD victories have sharpened policy disputes, prompting SPD calls for revisions to planned pension, care, and budget measures, yet party leaders have publicly ruled out collapse while their support hovers near record lows. Formal coalition agreements, the government's Bundestag majority, and Germany's pattern of durable grand coalitions reinforce continuity through 2026, outweighing short-term frictions. Traders price the implied probability of survival accordingly, viewing structural barriers and shared electoral risks as the dominant stabilizers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$76,348结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz holds due to strong mutual incentives against early dissolution, as both partners face historically low polling and worse results from snap elections amid AfD gains in recent eastern state votes. Recent AfD victories have sharpened policy disputes, prompting SPD calls for revisions to planned pension, care, and budget measures, yet party leaders have publicly ruled out collapse while their support hovers near record lows. Formal coalition agreements, the government's Bundestag majority, and Germany's pattern of durable grand coalitions reinforce continuity through 2026, outweighing short-term frictions. Traders price the implied probability of survival accordingly, viewing structural barriers and shared electoral risks as the dominant stabilizers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$76,348结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETThe CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz holds due to strong mutual incentives against early dissolution, as both partners face historically low polling and worse results from snap elections amid AfD gains in recent eastern state votes. Recent AfD victories have sharpened policy disputes, prompting SPD calls for revisions to planned pension, care, and budget measures, yet party leaders have publicly ruled out collapse while their support hovers near record lows. Formal coalition agreements, the government's Bundestag majority, and Germany's pattern of durable grand coalitions reinforce continuity through 2026, outweighing short-term frictions. Traders price the implied probability of survival accordingly, viewing structural barriers and shared electoral risks as the dominant stabilizers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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