**Wesley Bell's incumbency advantage as the current representative for Missouri's 1st Congressional District drives his 66.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, building on his narrow 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush amid heavy pro-Israel group spending against her.** A February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign—released in mid-April—shows them statistically tied at 44% Bell to 40% Bush among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability (52% vs. 45%), narrowing her market odds to 30.5% as traders weigh the internal poll's credibility. Recent highlights include both candidates filing by the March 31 deadline and Bush attending a May 3 ward-hosted forum while Bell sent a surrogate due to congressional scheduling. The August 4 primary in this plurality-Black St. Louis district hinges on progressive turnout, endorsements like National Nurses United for Bush, and undecideds shifting sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,083 交易量
$10,083 交易量
2026-08-04
韦斯利·贝尔
67%
科里·布什
31%
$10,083 交易量
$10,083 交易量
2026-08-04
韦斯利·贝尔
$5,316 交易量
67%
科里·布什
$4,767 交易量
31%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Wesley Bell's incumbency advantage as the current representative for Missouri's 1st Congressional District drives his 66.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, building on his narrow 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush amid heavy pro-Israel group spending against her.** A February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign—released in mid-April—shows them statistically tied at 44% Bell to 40% Bush among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability (52% vs. 45%), narrowing her market odds to 30.5% as traders weigh the internal poll's credibility. Recent highlights include both candidates filing by the March 31 deadline and Bush attending a May 3 ward-hosted forum while Bell sent a surrogate due to congressional scheduling. The August 4 primary in this plurality-Black St. Louis district hinges on progressive turnout, endorsements like National Nurses United for Bush, and undecideds shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
交易量
$10,083结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Wesley Bell's incumbency advantage as the current representative for Missouri's 1st Congressional District drives his 66.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, building on his narrow 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush amid heavy pro-Israel group spending against her.** A February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign—released in mid-April—shows them statistically tied at 44% Bell to 40% Bush among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability (52% vs. 45%), narrowing her market odds to 30.5% as traders weigh the internal poll's credibility. Recent highlights include both candidates filing by the March 31 deadline and Bush attending a May 3 ward-hosted forum while Bell sent a surrogate due to congressional scheduling. The August 4 primary in this plurality-Black St. Louis district hinges on progressive turnout, endorsements like National Nurses United for Bush, and undecideds shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$10,083结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Wesley Bell's incumbency advantage as the current representative for Missouri's 1st Congressional District drives his 66.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, building on his narrow 2024 primary victory over Cori Bush amid heavy pro-Israel group spending against her.** A February HIT Strategies poll commissioned by Bush's campaign—released in mid-April—shows them statistically tied at 44% Bell to 40% Bush among likely Democratic primary voters, with 17% undecided and Bush holding higher favorability (52% vs. 45%), narrowing her market odds to 30.5% as traders weigh the internal poll's credibility. Recent highlights include both candidates filing by the March 31 deadline and Bush attending a May 3 ward-hosted forum while Bell sent a surrogate due to congressional scheduling. The August 4 primary in this plurality-Black St. Louis district hinges on progressive turnout, endorsements like National Nurses United for Bush, and undecideds shifting sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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