Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel surveys from late August show him at 51.1% of voting intentions against Fernando Haddad at 39.9%, with room for an outright first-round victory within the margin of error. Earlier 2026 polls from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data similarly placed Tarcísio ahead by double digits. The withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the two main contenders. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends while acknowledging residual uncertainty from turnout dynamics or unforeseen campaign developments before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯 98.0%
费尔南多·哈达德 1.5%
埃丽卡·希尔顿 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$293,701 交易量
$293,701 交易量
2026-10-03
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
98%
费尔南多·哈达德
2%
埃丽卡·希尔顿
<1%
金·卡塔古里
<1%
马尔西奥·弗兰萨
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯 98.0%
费尔南多·哈达德 1.5%
埃丽卡·希尔顿 <1%
金·卡塔古里 <1%
$293,701 交易量
$293,701 交易量
2026-10-03
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$134,075 交易量
98%
费尔南多·哈达德
$48,750 交易量
2%
埃丽卡·希尔顿
$23,007 交易量
<1%
金·卡塔古里
$77,201 交易量
<1%
马尔西奥·弗兰萨
$10,668 交易量
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel surveys from late August show him at 51.1% of voting intentions against Fernando Haddad at 39.9%, with room for an outright first-round victory within the margin of error. Earlier 2026 polls from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data similarly placed Tarcísio ahead by double digits. The withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the two main contenders. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends while acknowledging residual uncertainty from turnout dynamics or unforeseen campaign developments before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$293,701结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETThe São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel surveys from late August show him at 51.1% of voting intentions against Fernando Haddad at 39.9%, with room for an outright first-round victory within the margin of error. Earlier 2026 polls from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data similarly placed Tarcísio ahead by double digits. The withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the two main contenders. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends while acknowledging residual uncertainty from turnout dynamics or unforeseen campaign developments before election day.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$293,701结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETTarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent AtlasIntel surveys from late August show him at 51.1% of voting intentions against Fernando Haddad at 39.9%, with room for an outright first-round victory within the margin of error. Earlier 2026 polls from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data similarly placed Tarcísio ahead by double digits. The withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the two main contenders. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these trends while acknowledging residual uncertainty from turnout dynamics or unforeseen campaign developments before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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