Celina Leão holds the strongest position in the October 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race as the incumbent governor who assumed office after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, backed by her Progressistas party and recent endorsements from Republicanos. Early and mid-2026 polling consistently shows her leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s against José Roberto Arruda, with fragmented support for challengers such as Leandro Grass, Paula Belmonte, and others. Arruda’s candidacy, revived through PSD affiliation after prior legal issues, trails but remains the clearest alternative in a field with limited name recognition elsewhere. Recent party conventions and campaign launches have reinforced trader consensus around Leão’s edge while leaving room for shifts ahead of the first-round vote and potential runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Celina Leão 43%
Cappelli 24%
Leandro Grass 22%
Professora Samara Mineiro 22%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Celina Leão
59%
Cappelli
24%
Leandro Grass
22%
Professora Samara Mineiro
22%
Kiko Caputo
21%
Professor Robson
20%
Expedito Mendonça
18%
Elisson
18%
Paula Belmonte
17%
Arruda
41%
Celina Leão 43%
Cappelli 24%
Leandro Grass 22%
Professora Samara Mineiro 22%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Celina Leão
$122 交易量
59%
Cappelli
$40 交易量
24%
Leandro Grass
$40 交易量
22%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$40 交易量
22%
Kiko Caputo
$40 交易量
21%
Professor Robson
$40 交易量
20%
Expedito Mendonça
$79 交易量
18%
Elisson
$40 交易量
18%
Paula Belmonte
$40 交易量
17%
Arruda
$40 交易量
41%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão holds the strongest position in the October 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race as the incumbent governor who assumed office after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, backed by her Progressistas party and recent endorsements from Republicanos. Early and mid-2026 polling consistently shows her leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s against José Roberto Arruda, with fragmented support for challengers such as Leandro Grass, Paula Belmonte, and others. Arruda’s candidacy, revived through PSD affiliation after prior legal issues, trails but remains the clearest alternative in a field with limited name recognition elsewhere. Recent party conventions and campaign launches have reinforced trader consensus around Leão’s edge while leaving room for shifts ahead of the first-round vote and potential runoff.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
交易量
$521结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão holds the strongest position in the October 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race as the incumbent governor who assumed office after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, backed by her Progressistas party and recent endorsements from Republicanos. Early and mid-2026 polling consistently shows her leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s against José Roberto Arruda, with fragmented support for challengers such as Leandro Grass, Paula Belmonte, and others. Arruda’s candidacy, revived through PSD affiliation after prior legal issues, trails but remains the clearest alternative in a field with limited name recognition elsewhere. Recent party conventions and campaign launches have reinforced trader consensus around Leão’s edge while leaving room for shifts ahead of the first-round vote and potential runoff.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$521结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão holds the strongest position in the October 2026 Federal District gubernatorial race as the incumbent governor who assumed office after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, backed by her Progressistas party and recent endorsements from Republicanos. Early and mid-2026 polling consistently shows her leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s against José Roberto Arruda, with fragmented support for challengers such as Leandro Grass, Paula Belmonte, and others. Arruda’s candidacy, revived through PSD affiliation after prior legal issues, trails but remains the clearest alternative in a field with limited name recognition elsewhere. Recent party conventions and campaign launches have reinforced trader consensus around Leão’s edge while leaving room for shifts ahead of the first-round vote and potential runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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