Recent polling has shifted momentum toward incumbent governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race, with the latest Quaest survey placing her at 43% against João Campos (PSB) at 37% in the first round. Earlier 2026 surveys showed Campos ahead or statistically tied, but Lyra has consolidated support among center-right voters as the election approaches in October. Minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) register negligible support below 2%. These trends align with trader pricing that assigns Lyra the highest implied probability while keeping Campos competitive in a potential runoff scenario. No major endorsements, party switches, or legal developments have altered the contest in recent weeks, leaving polling averages and voter turnout patterns in Recife and interior municipalities as the primary variables still capable of moving probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于拉克尔·利拉 62%
若昂·坎波斯 39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯 <1%
$24,056 交易量
$24,056 交易量
2026-10-04
拉克尔·利拉
62%
若昂·坎波斯
39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯
<1%
拉克尔·利拉 62%
若昂·坎波斯 39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯 <1%
$24,056 交易量
$24,056 交易量
2026-10-04
拉克尔·利拉
$9,955 交易量
62%
若昂·坎波斯
$11,949 交易量
39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯
$2,151 交易量
<1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling has shifted momentum toward incumbent governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race, with the latest Quaest survey placing her at 43% against João Campos (PSB) at 37% in the first round. Earlier 2026 surveys showed Campos ahead or statistically tied, but Lyra has consolidated support among center-right voters as the election approaches in October. Minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) register negligible support below 2%. These trends align with trader pricing that assigns Lyra the highest implied probability while keeping Campos competitive in a potential runoff scenario. No major endorsements, party switches, or legal developments have altered the contest in recent weeks, leaving polling averages and voter turnout patterns in Recife and interior municipalities as the primary variables still capable of moving probabilities.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
交易量
$24,056结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling has shifted momentum toward incumbent governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race, with the latest Quaest survey placing her at 43% against João Campos (PSB) at 37% in the first round. Earlier 2026 surveys showed Campos ahead or statistically tied, but Lyra has consolidated support among center-right voters as the election approaches in October. Minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) register negligible support below 2%. These trends align with trader pricing that assigns Lyra the highest implied probability while keeping Campos competitive in a potential runoff scenario. No major endorsements, party switches, or legal developments have altered the contest in recent weeks, leaving polling averages and voter turnout patterns in Recife and interior municipalities as the primary variables still capable of moving probabilities.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$24,056结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling has shifted momentum toward incumbent governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) in the Pernambuco gubernatorial race, with the latest Quaest survey placing her at 43% against João Campos (PSB) at 37% in the first round. Earlier 2026 surveys showed Campos ahead or statistically tied, but Lyra has consolidated support among center-right voters as the election approaches in October. Minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) register negligible support below 2%. These trends align with trader pricing that assigns Lyra the highest implied probability while keeping Campos competitive in a potential runoff scenario. No major endorsements, party switches, or legal developments have altered the contest in recent weeks, leaving polling averages and voter turnout patterns in Recife and interior municipalities as the primary variables still capable of moving probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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