Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent seeking re-election as Pernambuco's first woman governor, holds a 61.5% market probability over João Campos (PSB) at 38.5%, with minor candidates like Ivan Moraes near zero. This pricing aligns with her consistent numerical lead or technical tie in recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from mid-September, where she registers 47-49% to Campos' 42-46% in the first round ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders appear to weigh her statewide government apparatus and interior support against Campos' strong Recife base and PSB machine. Recent campaign activity includes legal rulings granting Lyra rights of response to opposition ads on her compensation and assets, alongside her announcements on expanding security hiring and education infrastructure, which underscore the tight contest driven by regional voting patterns and turnout dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于拉克尔·利拉 61%
若昂·坎波斯 39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯 <1%
$49,792 交易量
$49,792 交易量
2026-10-04
拉克尔·利拉
61%
若昂·坎波斯
39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯
<1%
拉克尔·利拉 61%
若昂·坎波斯 39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯 <1%
$49,792 交易量
$49,792 交易量
2026-10-04
拉克尔·利拉
$23,409 交易量
61%
若昂·坎波斯
$21,002 交易量
39%
伊万·莫拉埃斯
$5,382 交易量
<1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent seeking re-election as Pernambuco's first woman governor, holds a 61.5% market probability over João Campos (PSB) at 38.5%, with minor candidates like Ivan Moraes near zero. This pricing aligns with her consistent numerical lead or technical tie in recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from mid-September, where she registers 47-49% to Campos' 42-46% in the first round ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders appear to weigh her statewide government apparatus and interior support against Campos' strong Recife base and PSB machine. Recent campaign activity includes legal rulings granting Lyra rights of response to opposition ads on her compensation and assets, alongside her announcements on expanding security hiring and education infrastructure, which underscore the tight contest driven by regional voting patterns and turnout dynamics.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
交易量
$49,792结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETThe Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent seeking re-election as Pernambuco's first woman governor, holds a 61.5% market probability over João Campos (PSB) at 38.5%, with minor candidates like Ivan Moraes near zero. This pricing aligns with her consistent numerical lead or technical tie in recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from mid-September, where she registers 47-49% to Campos' 42-46% in the first round ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders appear to weigh her statewide government apparatus and interior support against Campos' strong Recife base and PSB machine. Recent campaign activity includes legal rulings granting Lyra rights of response to opposition ads on her compensation and assets, alongside her announcements on expanding security hiring and education infrastructure, which underscore the tight contest driven by regional voting patterns and turnout dynamics.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$49,792结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETRaquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent seeking re-election as Pernambuco's first woman governor, holds a 61.5% market probability over João Campos (PSB) at 38.5%, with minor candidates like Ivan Moraes near zero. This pricing aligns with her consistent numerical lead or technical tie in recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from mid-September, where she registers 47-49% to Campos' 42-46% in the first round ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders appear to weigh her statewide government apparatus and interior support against Campos' strong Recife base and PSB machine. Recent campaign activity includes legal rulings granting Lyra rights of response to opposition ads on her compensation and assets, alongside her announcements on expanding security hiring and education infrastructure, which underscore the tight contest driven by regional voting patterns and turnout dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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