**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 70%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 30.6%
雷南·桑托斯 <1%
奥古斯托·库里 <1%
$7,672,237 交易量
$7,672,237 交易量
2026-10-03
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
70%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
31%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
奥古斯托·库里
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 70%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 30.6%
雷南·桑托斯 <1%
奥古斯托·库里 <1%
$7,672,237 交易量
$7,672,237 交易量
2026-10-03
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$1,033,941 交易量
70%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$861,218 交易量
31%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,357,864 交易量
<1%
奥古斯托·库里
$261,522 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$274,561 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$205,331 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
$810,518 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$229,030 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$173,947 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$750,182 交易量
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$507,972 交易量
<1%
Romeu Zema
$421,735 交易量
<1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$207,849 交易量
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$231,008 交易量
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
$144,665 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
$142,390 交易量
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$36,533 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$21,972 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$7,672,237结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$7,672,237结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题