The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for first place remains tightly contested, with trader consensus reflecting a fragmented field of more than a dozen declared candidates and no dominant frontrunner ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent July Quaest polling showed Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL) at 12 percent, followed closely by Germano Rigotto (MDB) and Paulo Pimenta (PT) near 9 percent, Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) at 7 percent, and others in single digits, underscoring low name recognition and vote splitting across parties including PSDB, PSD, and PL. The absence of an incumbent seeking re-election has opened the contest, while formal campaigning has yet to begin and coalition negotiations continue. This uncertainty sustains balanced probabilities across leading contenders, with separation likely hinging on upcoming surveys, alliances, and turnout patterns in the state’s two-seat contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Manuela D'Ávila 34%
Marcel Van Hattem 32%
Pimenta 30%
Renato Jaguarão 28%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Manuela D'Ávila
27%
Marcel Van Hattem
22%
Pimenta
30%
Renato Jaguarão
28%
Luciano do MLB
23%
Rigotto
22%
Ric Jones
22%
Milton Cardoso
16%
Regis Ethur
15%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
15%
Sanderson
10%
Frederico Antunes
9%
Tania Peres
3%
Manuela D'Ávila 34%
Marcel Van Hattem 32%
Pimenta 30%
Renato Jaguarão 28%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Manuela D'Ávila
$110 交易量
27%
Marcel Van Hattem
$147 交易量
22%
Pimenta
$69 交易量
30%
Renato Jaguarão
$69 交易量
28%
Luciano do MLB
$66 交易量
23%
Rigotto
$69 交易量
22%
Ric Jones
$69 交易量
22%
Milton Cardoso
$69 交易量
16%
Regis Ethur
$69 交易量
15%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$69 交易量
15%
Sanderson
$102 交易量
10%
Frederico Antunes
$121 交易量
9%
Tania Peres
$155 交易量
3%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for first place remains tightly contested, with trader consensus reflecting a fragmented field of more than a dozen declared candidates and no dominant frontrunner ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent July Quaest polling showed Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL) at 12 percent, followed closely by Germano Rigotto (MDB) and Paulo Pimenta (PT) near 9 percent, Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) at 7 percent, and others in single digits, underscoring low name recognition and vote splitting across parties including PSDB, PSD, and PL. The absence of an incumbent seeking re-election has opened the contest, while formal campaigning has yet to begin and coalition negotiations continue. This uncertainty sustains balanced probabilities across leading contenders, with separation likely hinging on upcoming surveys, alliances, and turnout patterns in the state’s two-seat contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
交易量
$1,180结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for first place remains tightly contested, with trader consensus reflecting a fragmented field of more than a dozen declared candidates and no dominant frontrunner ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent July Quaest polling showed Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL) at 12 percent, followed closely by Germano Rigotto (MDB) and Paulo Pimenta (PT) near 9 percent, Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) at 7 percent, and others in single digits, underscoring low name recognition and vote splitting across parties including PSDB, PSD, and PL. The absence of an incumbent seeking re-election has opened the contest, while formal campaigning has yet to begin and coalition negotiations continue. This uncertainty sustains balanced probabilities across leading contenders, with separation likely hinging on upcoming surveys, alliances, and turnout patterns in the state’s two-seat contest.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$1,180结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for first place remains tightly contested, with trader consensus reflecting a fragmented field of more than a dozen declared candidates and no dominant frontrunner ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent July Quaest polling showed Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL) at 12 percent, followed closely by Germano Rigotto (MDB) and Paulo Pimenta (PT) near 9 percent, Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) at 7 percent, and others in single digits, underscoring low name recognition and vote splitting across parties including PSDB, PSD, and PL. The absence of an incumbent seeking re-election has opened the contest, while formal campaigning has yet to begin and coalition negotiations continue. This uncertainty sustains balanced probabilities across leading contenders, with separation likely hinging on upcoming surveys, alliances, and turnout patterns in the state’s two-seat contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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