The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for one of two open seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 2026 vote, with recent Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie among five or more contenders within the margin of error. Leading options such as Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) sit in a tight cluster, reflecting divided voter preferences across left, center, and right-leaning coalitions without a dominant frontrunner. Trader pricing around 50% for numerous candidates captures this uncertainty, driven by the absence of incumbents, fluid party alliances, and limited differentiation on key state issues like economic recovery and federal relations. Further polling shifts or coalition consolidations before the first round could separate the field for second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于桑德森 44%
雷纳托·贾瓜朗 42%
马努埃拉·达维拉 25%
皮门塔 24%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
桑德森
44%
雷纳托·贾瓜朗
42%
马努埃拉·达维拉
25%
皮门塔
24%
马塞尔·范·哈特姆
23%
Rigotto
22%
弗雷德里科·安图内斯
21%
米尔顿·卡多索
20%
Ric Jones
11%
丹妮拉·穆列雷斯·索西亚利斯塔斯
8%
Regis Ethur
8%
塔尼娅·佩雷斯
22%
卢西亚诺·多·MLB
41%
桑德森 44%
雷纳托·贾瓜朗 42%
马努埃拉·达维拉 25%
皮门塔 24%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
桑德森
$20 交易量
44%
雷纳托·贾瓜朗
$20 交易量
42%
马努埃拉·达维拉
$20 交易量
25%
皮门塔
$20 交易量
24%
马塞尔·范·哈特姆
$20 交易量
23%
Rigotto
$20 交易量
22%
弗雷德里科·安图内斯
$20 交易量
21%
米尔顿·卡多索
$20 交易量
20%
Ric Jones
$59 交易量
11%
丹妮拉·穆列雷斯·索西亚利斯塔斯
$71 交易量
8%
Regis Ethur
$87 交易量
8%
塔尼娅·佩雷斯
$280 交易量
22%
卢西亚诺·多·MLB
$101 交易量
41%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for one of two open seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 2026 vote, with recent Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie among five or more contenders within the margin of error. Leading options such as Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) sit in a tight cluster, reflecting divided voter preferences across left, center, and right-leaning coalitions without a dominant frontrunner. Trader pricing around 50% for numerous candidates captures this uncertainty, driven by the absence of incumbents, fluid party alliances, and limited differentiation on key state issues like economic recovery and federal relations. Further polling shifts or coalition consolidations before the first round could separate the field for second place.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
交易量
$757结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for one of two open seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 2026 vote, with recent Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie among five or more contenders within the margin of error. Leading options such as Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) sit in a tight cluster, reflecting divided voter preferences across left, center, and right-leaning coalitions without a dominant frontrunner. Trader pricing around 50% for numerous candidates captures this uncertainty, driven by the absence of incumbents, fluid party alliances, and limited differentiation on key state issues like economic recovery and federal relations. Further polling shifts or coalition consolidations before the first round could separate the field for second place.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$757结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for one of two open seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 2026 vote, with recent Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie among five or more contenders within the margin of error. Leading options such as Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) sit in a tight cluster, reflecting divided voter preferences across left, center, and right-leaning coalitions without a dominant frontrunner. Trader pricing around 50% for numerous candidates captures this uncertainty, driven by the absence of incumbents, fluid party alliances, and limited differentiation on key state issues like economic recovery and federal relations. Further polling shifts or coalition consolidations before the first round could separate the field for second place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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