Recent softening in Brazil’s IPCA readings, including a 4.22% year-over-year rate in August 2026 that beat forecasts and marked the steepest monthly decline in four years, has anchored the Focus survey median expectation for full-year 2026 inflation at 5.00%. This has narrowed the contest between the 4.50–4.99% and 5.00–5.49% brackets on Polymarket. Resilient domestic demand, fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, and sticky services prices sustain upside risks, while the central bank’s ongoing Selic easing cycle and commodity price moderation provide counterbalance. Traders will monitor the next Copom meeting, September IPCA data, and any revisions to growth or oil-price assumptions for further shifts in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5.00-5.49% 44.6%
4.50-4.99% 39.6%
5.50-5.99% 5.3%
6.00-6.49% 2.7%
$108,131 交易量
$108,131 交易量
2027-01-11
低于3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
1%
4.00-4.49%
2%
4.50-4.99%
40%
5.00-5.49%
45%
5.50-5.99%
5%
6.00-6.49%
3%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%及以上
<1%
5.00-5.49% 44.6%
4.50-4.99% 39.6%
5.50-5.99% 5.3%
6.00-6.49% 2.7%
$108,131 交易量
$108,131 交易量
2027-01-11
低于3.00%
$6,485 交易量
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$6,377 交易量
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,840 交易量
1%
4.00-4.49%
$15,006 交易量
2%
4.50-4.99%
$18,322 交易量
40%
5.00-5.49%
$16,734 交易量
45%
5.50-5.99%
$11,644 交易量
5%
6.00-6.49%
$7,549 交易量
3%
6.50-6.99%
$7,041 交易量
<1%
7.00%及以上
$5,134 交易量
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent softening in Brazil’s IPCA readings, including a 4.22% year-over-year rate in August 2026 that beat forecasts and marked the steepest monthly decline in four years, has anchored the Focus survey median expectation for full-year 2026 inflation at 5.00%. This has narrowed the contest between the 4.50–4.99% and 5.00–5.49% brackets on Polymarket. Resilient domestic demand, fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, and sticky services prices sustain upside risks, while the central bank’s ongoing Selic easing cycle and commodity price moderation provide counterbalance. Traders will monitor the next Copom meeting, September IPCA data, and any revisions to growth or oil-price assumptions for further shifts in implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
市场开放时间： Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
交易量
$108,131结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETThis is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent softening in Brazil’s IPCA readings, including a 4.22% year-over-year rate in August 2026 that beat forecasts and marked the steepest monthly decline in four years, has anchored the Focus survey median expectation for full-year 2026 inflation at 5.00%. This has narrowed the contest between the 4.50–4.99% and 5.00–5.49% brackets on Polymarket. Resilient domestic demand, fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, and sticky services prices sustain upside risks, while the central bank’s ongoing Selic easing cycle and commodity price moderation provide counterbalance. Traders will monitor the next Copom meeting, September IPCA data, and any revisions to growth or oil-price assumptions for further shifts in implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
交易量
$108,131结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRecent softening in Brazil’s IPCA readings, including a 4.22% year-over-year rate in August 2026 that beat forecasts and marked the steepest monthly decline in four years, has anchored the Focus survey median expectation for full-year 2026 inflation at 5.00%. This has narrowed the contest between the 4.50–4.99% and 5.00–5.49% brackets on Polymarket. Resilient domestic demand, fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, and sticky services prices sustain upside risks, while the central bank’s ongoing Selic easing cycle and commodity price moderation provide counterbalance. Traders will monitor the next Copom meeting, September IPCA data, and any revisions to growth or oil-price assumptions for further shifts in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题