Recent CPI prints at 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, the first sustained readings above the RBI’s 4% target in over a year, combined with the central bank’s June upward revision of its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%, have anchored trader expectations for India’s 2026 annual inflation. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia have lifted energy and fertilizer costs, while food-price pressures from adverse weather have added to the upside risks, pushing the market-implied probability of a 4.50%+ outcome to 79.5%. With the RBI maintaining its repo rate at 5.25% and emphasizing balanced risks, current data and policy signals reinforce the consensus that average inflation for the year will exceed the 4.5% threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.50%及以上 80%
3.75%到4.49% 13.4%
低于0.75% 3.7%
3.00%到3.74% 2.3%
$78,399 交易量
$78,399 交易量
2027-01-11
低于0.75%
4%
0.75%到1.49%
2%
1.50%到2.24%
1%
2.25%到2.99%
1%
3.00%到3.74%
2%
3.75%到4.49%
13%
4.50%及以上
80%
4.50%及以上 80%
3.75%到4.49% 13.4%
低于0.75% 3.7%
3.00%到3.74% 2.3%
$78,399 交易量
$78,399 交易量
2027-01-11
低于0.75%
$1,769 交易量
4%
0.75%到1.49%
$1,191 交易量
2%
1.50%到2.24%
$1,295 交易量
1%
2.25%到2.99%
$24,989 交易量
1%
3.00%到3.74%
$2,081 交易量
2%
3.75%到4.49%
$29,564 交易量
13%
4.50%及以上
$17,510 交易量
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent CPI prints at 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, the first sustained readings above the RBI’s 4% target in over a year, combined with the central bank’s June upward revision of its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%, have anchored trader expectations for India’s 2026 annual inflation. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia have lifted energy and fertilizer costs, while food-price pressures from adverse weather have added to the upside risks, pushing the market-implied probability of a 4.50%+ outcome to 79.5%. With the RBI maintaining its repo rate at 5.25% and emphasizing balanced risks, current data and policy signals reinforce the consensus that average inflation for the year will exceed the 4.5% threshold.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
交易量
$78,399结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent CPI prints at 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, the first sustained readings above the RBI’s 4% target in over a year, combined with the central bank’s June upward revision of its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%, have anchored trader expectations for India’s 2026 annual inflation. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia have lifted energy and fertilizer costs, while food-price pressures from adverse weather have added to the upside risks, pushing the market-implied probability of a 4.50%+ outcome to 79.5%. With the RBI maintaining its repo rate at 5.25% and emphasizing balanced risks, current data and policy signals reinforce the consensus that average inflation for the year will exceed the 4.5% threshold.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
交易量
$78,399结束日期
2027-01-12市场开放时间
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent CPI prints at 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, the first sustained readings above the RBI’s 4% target in over a year, combined with the central bank’s June upward revision of its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%, have anchored trader expectations for India’s 2026 annual inflation. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia have lifted energy and fertilizer costs, while food-price pressures from adverse weather have added to the upside risks, pushing the market-implied probability of a 4.50%+ outcome to 79.5%. With the RBI maintaining its repo rate at 5.25% and emphasizing balanced risks, current data and policy signals reinforce the consensus that average inflation for the year will exceed the 4.5% threshold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题