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icon for 莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

icon for 莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

12月 31

12月 31

10% 概率
Polymarket

$24,871 交易量

10% 概率
Polymarket

$24,871 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership faces no imminent threats, anchoring trader consensus at 90% against his exit by December 31, 2026, amid stable NDA coalition dynamics and a full term until 2029 general elections. A significant legislative setback occurred on April 17 when the opposition INDIA bloc defeated the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill in Lok Sabha, failing the two-thirds majority for delimitation-linked women's quota tweaks—yet no government crisis ensued, with allies reaffirming support. Modi continues active campaigning in ongoing 2026 state assembly polls across West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Puducherry, countering earlier opposition rhetoric like Arvind Kejriwal's March speculation. Scenarios like health issues, scandals, or no-confidence votes could shift odds, but none have materialized.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$24,871
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership faces no imminent threats, anchoring trader consensus at 90% against his exit by December 31, 2026, amid stable NDA coalition dynamics and a full term until 2029 general elections. A significant legislative setback occurred on April 17 when the opposition INDIA bloc defeated the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill in Lok Sabha, failing the two-thirds majority for delimitation-linked women's quota tweaks—yet no government crisis ensued, with allies reaffirming support. Modi continues active campaigning in ongoing 2026 state assembly polls across West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Puducherry, countering earlier opposition rhetoric like Arvind Kejriwal's March speculation. Scenarios like health issues, scandals, or no-confidence votes could shift odds, but none have materialized.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$24,871
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"莫迪会在2026年12月31日前下台吗?",概率为 10%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 10¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 10%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?"已产生 $24.9K 的总交易量(自Nov 13, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?"的当前领先者是"莫迪会在2026年12月31日前下台吗?",概率为 10%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 10%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。