Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election stands as the central driver of trader views on whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister through year-end. Recent polls project his right-wing and religious bloc at 51–55 seats, below the 61-seat majority threshold, while opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar list hold a narrow edge. Netanyahu continues to campaign for reelection and has stated he would lead Likud in opposition rather than step aside if defeated. Coalition formation after the vote could extend into late 2026, creating uncertainty over the precise timing of any transition. Scheduled events such as Netanyahu’s UN General Assembly address and ongoing party-list finalization add near-term visibility into positioning ahead of the ballot.