Skip to main content
icon for 2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主
政治·奖项

2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主

icon for 2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主
政治·奖项

2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主

尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅 9%

弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 6.9%

UNRWA 4.7%

利奥十四世教皇 3.3%

Polymarket

$23,152,655 交易量

尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅 9%

弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基 6.9%

UNRWA 4.7%

利奥十四世教皇 3.3%

Polymarket

$23,152,655 交易量

icon for 尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅

尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅

$284,656 交易量

9%

icon for 弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基

弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基

$770,553 交易量

7%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$2,037,660 交易量

5%

icon for 利奥十四世教皇

利奥十四世教皇

$804,575 交易量

3%

icon for 塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒塔尼

塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒塔尼

$776,096 交易量

3%

icon for 唐纳德·特朗普

唐纳德·特朗普

$4,237,711 交易量

3%

icon for 国际法院

国际法院

$897,001 交易量

2%

icon for 朱利安·阿桑奇

朱利安·阿桑奇

$849,097 交易量

1%

icon for 纳伦德拉·莫迪

纳伦德拉·莫迪

$680,959 交易量

1%

icon for 安东尼奥·古特雷斯

安东尼奥·古特雷斯

$616,417 交易量

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,450,450 交易量

1%

icon for 分组项标题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿

分组项标题：艾哈迈德·阿尔沙拉阿

$1,255,600 交易量

1%

icon for 分组条目标题：习近平

分组条目标题：习近平

$1,432,130 交易量

1%

icon for 分组项标题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼

分组项标题：穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼

$1,162,815 交易量

1%

icon for 分组项标题：查理·柯克

分组项标题：查理·柯克

$1,243,047 交易量

1%

icon for 分组项标题：哈立德·马沙尔

分组项标题：哈立德·马沙尔

$864,820 交易量

1%

icon for 分组项标题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安

分组项标题：雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安

$1,051,974 交易量

<1%

icon for 埃隆·马斯克

埃隆·马斯克

$1,160,950 交易量

<1%

icon for 弗拉基米尔·普京

弗拉基米尔·普京

$894,802 交易量

<1%

icon for 分组条目标题：本杰明·内塔尼亚胡

分组条目标题：本杰明·内塔尼亚胡

$681,341 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize shows a fragmented field, with implied probabilities below 9% across all listed candidates. This dispersion reflects the award’s emphasis on recent, verifiable peace advancements amid ongoing global conflicts rather than established frontrunners. Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy edge ahead modestly on associations with high-profile opposition and wartime diplomacy, while organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support for institutional roles. Historical secrecy in the Nobel process, combined with shifting geopolitical developments, leaves room for late momentum swings ahead of the October announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$23,152,655
结束日期
2026-10-10
市场开放时间
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize shows a fragmented field, with implied probabilities below 9% across all listed candidates. This dispersion reflects the award’s emphasis on recent, verifiable peace advancements amid ongoing global conflicts rather than established frontrunners. Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy edge ahead modestly on associations with high-profile opposition and wartime diplomacy, while organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support for institutional roles. Historical secrecy in the Nobel process, combined with shifting geopolitical developments, leaves room for late momentum swings ahead of the October announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$23,152,655
结束日期
2026-10-10
市场开放时间
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

相关

icon for 特朗普、普京和泽连斯基会在2027年前被看到一起出现吗？

特朗普、普京和泽连斯基会在2027年前被看到一起出现吗？

8%
是
icon for 特朗普、普京和泽连斯基会在2027年前会面吗？

特朗普、普京和泽连斯基会在2027年前会面吗？

8%
是
icon for 乔什·艾伦会赢得2026年NFL MVP吗？

乔什·艾伦会赢得2026年NFL MVP吗？

13%
是

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 20 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅"，概率为 9%，其次是"弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基"，概率为 7%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 9¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 9%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主"已产生 $23.2 million 的总交易量（自Oct 16, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 20 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主"的当前领先者是"尤利娅·纳瓦尔尼娅"，仅有 9%，"弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基"紧随其后为 7%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"2026年诺贝尔和平奖得主"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。