Market icon

巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际

Market icon

巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际

卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 31%

卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 29%

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 21%

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10% 8.0%

Polymarket

$11,015 交易量

卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 31%

卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 29%

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 21%

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10% 8.0%

Polymarket

$11,015 交易量

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卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+

$2,951 交易量

1%

Market icon

卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%

$1,048 交易量

3%

Market icon

卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%

$1,406 交易量

31%

Market icon

卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%

$1,152 交易量

29%

Market icon

弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+

$595 交易量

6%

Market icon

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%

$547 交易量

8%

Market icon

弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%

$855 交易量

21%

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雷南·桑托斯胜利

$669 交易量

4%

Market icon

塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利

$463 交易量

1%

Market icon

拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利

$577 交易量

<1%

Market icon

其他

$753 交易量

6%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$11,015
结束日期
Oct 4, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 11 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%",概率为 31%,其次是"卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%",概率为 28%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 31¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 31%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际"已产生 $11K 的总交易量(自Feb 11, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 11 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际"的当前领先者是"卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%",概率为 31%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 31%。紧随其后的结果是"卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%",概率为 28%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"巴西总统选举第一轮:胜利边际"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。