**Trader consensus against any STF justice removal by impeachment before 2027 rests on Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements and consistent institutional resistance.** Removal demands Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes) for crimes of responsibility—thresholds never met despite record filings, especially targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filings to the Prosecutor-General and elevated Senate vote requirements, while Senate leadership has shelved dozens of petitions. Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable block, and historical precedent shows no successful STF impeachments. Post-October 2026 Senate elections could theoretically shift composition enough for new leadership to advance proceedings, though polling and cross-party dynamics indicate this remains remote within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$83,913 交易量
$83,913 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$83,913 交易量
$83,913 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus against any STF justice removal by impeachment before 2027 rests on Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements and consistent institutional resistance.** Removal demands Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes) for crimes of responsibility—thresholds never met despite record filings, especially targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filings to the Prosecutor-General and elevated Senate vote requirements, while Senate leadership has shelved dozens of petitions. Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable block, and historical precedent shows no successful STF impeachments. Post-October 2026 Senate elections could theoretically shift composition enough for new leadership to advance proceedings, though polling and cross-party dynamics indicate this remains remote within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
交易量
$83,913结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus against any STF justice removal by impeachment before 2027 rests on Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements and consistent institutional resistance.** Removal demands Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes) for crimes of responsibility—thresholds never met despite record filings, especially targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filings to the Prosecutor-General and elevated Senate vote requirements, while Senate leadership has shelved dozens of petitions. Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable block, and historical precedent shows no successful STF impeachments. Post-October 2026 Senate elections could theoretically shift composition enough for new leadership to advance proceedings, though polling and cross-party dynamics indicate this remains remote within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$83,913结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET**Trader consensus against any STF justice removal by impeachment before 2027 rests on Brazil’s stringent constitutional requirements and consistent institutional resistance.** Removal demands Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes) for crimes of responsibility—thresholds never met despite record filings, especially targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filings to the Prosecutor-General and elevated Senate vote requirements, while Senate leadership has shelved dozens of petitions. Lula-aligned senators provide a reliable block, and historical precedent shows no successful STF impeachments. Post-October 2026 Senate elections could theoretically shift composition enough for new leadership to advance proceedings, though polling and cross-party dynamics indicate this remains remote within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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