**Traders assign a 76% probability to no U.S. Supreme Court vacancy occurring in 2026, reflecting the absence of announced retirements or health concerns among the nine sitting justices.** The most recent development came in August 2026 when Justice Samuel Alito, age 76, publicly stated he intends to serve at least another full term, directly addressing and dismissing retirement speculation. Justice Clarence Thomas, the oldest at 78, has given no indication of stepping down. The remaining justices range from their mid-50s to early 70s, with no reported medical issues or public signals of departure. Senate confirmation dynamics under the current administration and the lack of any mandatory retirement timeline further support the market consensus that a vacancy before year-end 2026 remains unlikely absent unforeseen events.