**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026 at 75.5% implied probability.** The two oldest justices, Samuel Alito (76) and Clarence Thomas (78), have explicitly signaled they intend to remain. In an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview, Alito stated he is “here for another term,” extending at least through the Court’s 2026-2027 term ending around June or July 2027. Earlier reports and sources close to both justices confirmed they have no plans to retire this year and have hired full clerk complements accordingly. The typical end-of-term retirement window in June 2026 passed without announcements, and no other justices face comparable retirement pressure. With roughly three months remaining in the calendar year, the primary risk is an unforeseen health event, which traders currently price as limited. These direct statements and the absence of action have anchored the market’s consensus that the bench will stay intact through December 31, 2026.