Trader consensus assigns a 97.3% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027, reflecting the absence of viable legislative pathways and entrenched institutional safeguards. A 2025 bill to repeal the Federal Reserve Act and eliminate the Board of Governors and regional banks advanced no further than committee referral, while recent developments emphasize reform over dissolution, including new leadership task forces on balance sheet management, inflation targeting, and communications under Chair Kevin Warsh. Supreme Court rulings have reinforced governors’ for-cause removal protections and central bank independence, consistent with historical patterns of incremental adjustments rather than structural elimination. Realistic shifts before 2027 would require unprecedented congressional majorities, a severe economic crisis prompting radical reconsideration, or executive actions that successfully bypass statutory and judicial constraints.