The high trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from sustained success with the all-volunteer force, as all active-duty branches met or exceeded fiscal year recruiting targets amid improved retention incentives and economic conditions. No congressional action has amended the Military Selective Service Act to enable induction, despite automatic Selective Service registration provisions taking effect in December 2026 under the prior National Defense Authorization Act. Absent a declared national emergency or large-scale conflict exceeding volunteer capacity, legislative barriers and bipartisan reluctance to pursue conscription remain firm. Rare shifts could occur only through sudden major escalations requiring rapid force expansion or unforeseen shortfalls in enlistment, though current indicators show no such trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$521,368 交易量
$521,368 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$521,368 交易量
$521,368 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from sustained success with the all-volunteer force, as all active-duty branches met or exceeded fiscal year recruiting targets amid improved retention incentives and economic conditions. No congressional action has amended the Military Selective Service Act to enable induction, despite automatic Selective Service registration provisions taking effect in December 2026 under the prior National Defense Authorization Act. Absent a declared national emergency or large-scale conflict exceeding volunteer capacity, legislative barriers and bipartisan reluctance to pursue conscription remain firm. Rare shifts could occur only through sudden major escalations requiring rapid force expansion or unforeseen shortfalls in enlistment, though current indicators show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$521,368结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from sustained success with the all-volunteer force, as all active-duty branches met or exceeded fiscal year recruiting targets amid improved retention incentives and economic conditions. No congressional action has amended the Military Selective Service Act to enable induction, despite automatic Selective Service registration provisions taking effect in December 2026 under the prior National Defense Authorization Act. Absent a declared national emergency or large-scale conflict exceeding volunteer capacity, legislative barriers and bipartisan reluctance to pursue conscription remain firm. Rare shifts could occur only through sudden major escalations requiring rapid force expansion or unforeseen shortfalls in enlistment, though current indicators show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$521,368结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems from sustained success with the all-volunteer force, as all active-duty branches met or exceeded fiscal year recruiting targets amid improved retention incentives and economic conditions. No congressional action has amended the Military Selective Service Act to enable induction, despite automatic Selective Service registration provisions taking effect in December 2026 under the prior National Defense Authorization Act. Absent a declared national emergency or large-scale conflict exceeding volunteer capacity, legislative barriers and bipartisan reluctance to pursue conscription remain firm. Rare shifts could occur only through sudden major escalations requiring rapid force expansion or unforeseen shortfalls in enlistment, though current indicators show no such trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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