Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end, with the federal funds target range held steady at 3.50%-3.75% for three consecutive meetings. Recent FOMC minutes underscore upside inflation risks and a potential need to maintain the current policy stance longer, while resilient growth and unemployment near 4.3% support the hawkish tilt. Brokerage forecasts have shifted from earlier easing projections to prolonged holds or possible modest hikes later in 2026, aligning with CME Fed Funds futures pricing. The June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC meeting stand as key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or alter this market-implied path.