Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year amid Middle East supply shocks, has shifted trader sentiment toward a hawkish policy stance and reduced near-term rate-cut odds. The federal funds rate remains in the 3.50%-3.75% range following the July 29 FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a hike. Solid labor market conditions, including 4.1% unemployment, and resilient economic growth have further anchored expectations that the FOMC may hold or even tighten rather than ease at the September 15-16 meeting. Market-implied odds now reflect limited prospects for cuts before 2027, with upcoming inflation releases and Fed communications serving as key swing factors for any repricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Federal Reserve Maintains Steady Rates Through August 2026 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
December Meeting drops to 11%5%
The Fed continued to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through August 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and labor market data. This ongoing pause contributed to the decline in market expectations for rate cuts in the December meeting window.
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 fall to historic lows
September Meeting dips to 1%1%
By late August 2026, market pricing for rate cuts at upcoming meetings, including September, had fallen to near zero, reflecting the Fed's firm stance on holding rates steady amid stable inflation and labor market data. This contributed to the very low probabilities for rate cuts in September and October meetings.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at July 2026 FOMC meeting with divided vote
September Meeting dips to 4%1%
The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 9-3 vote including dissenters favoring a hike. This reflected ongoing debate about inflation risks and labor market strength, signaling a cautious stance and maintaining market uncertainty about future cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting
December Meeting rises to 20%1%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting, continuing its cautious stance amid mixed economic signals. Market expectations for rate hikes or cuts remained subdued, reflecting the Fed's data-dependent approach and internal divisions on monetary policy.
Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, reflecting ongoing economic stability and inflation concerns. Markets priced in potential rate hikes later in the year, signaling a shift away from expectations of cuts.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at July 2026 FOMC meeting despite dissent
December Meeting drops to 14%6%
At the July 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market strength, further dampening expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve minutes reveal dissenters favoring rate hike at July meeting
The July 28-29, 2026 FOMC minutes showed three members voted against maintaining the target range, preferring a 25 basis point increase. This highlighted ongoing internal divisions and a cautious stance on rate cuts, supporting market expectations of stable rates through mid-2026.
Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
December Meeting dips to 12%2%
Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.
Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy
December Meeting drops to 14%7%
The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 16-17 meeting amid inflation concerns
December Meeting rises to 28%4%
At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing ongoing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed's cautious stance and data-dependent approach kept market expectations for rate cuts low during this period.
Fed officials signal cautious approach amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns
December Meeting drops to 20%11%
Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts during mid-2026, highlighting mixed signals from labor market data and persistent inflation above target. This contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with unanimous vote, signals no cuts in 2026
In June 2026, the Fed unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The updated economic projections showed no expected rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, reflecting a hawkish shift and concerns about inflation persistence despite some labor market cooling.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid rising inflation and labor market strength
December Meeting drops to 23%8%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, citing rising inflation and a strengthening labor market. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first public remarks, signaling a cautious approach and emphasizing data-driven policy decisions, which maintained low market expectations for rate cuts.
April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
December Meeting dips to 11%4%
April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data
December Meeting plunges to 11%16%
In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.
President Trump publicly urges Federal Reserve to convene emergency meeting to cut rates immediately
December Meeting plunges to 47%15%
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump called for an emergency Fed meeting to cut interest rates, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at the meeting, contributing to market uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting
December Meeting plunges to 47%17%
The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Signals Adaptive Monetary Policy Following May Meeting
The Fed's May 2026 meeting emphasized an adaptive approach to monetary policy, guided by incoming economic data. While no rate cuts were announced, the Fed highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and labor market stability, maintaining a cautious stance that influenced market expectations for future rate moves.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent
December Meeting rises to 63%1%
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, 2026, matching market expectations but revealing rare internal disagreement with four officials dissenting. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit, adding uncertainty. The decision reflected caution amid persistent inflation and mixed economic signals.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in April meeting
The Fed held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid mixed economic signals. The unanimous decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions, reinforcing market expectations that no rate cuts would occur in the near term.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at April 2026 FOMC meeting amid inflation and labor market concerns
December Meeting plunges to 47%15%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, citing ongoing inflation above target and a strengthening labor market. The cautious tone and lack of cuts led to further declines in market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid cautious outlook
At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted 11-1 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Iran conflict. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent approach and signaled no rate cuts in 2026, which reduced market expectations for easing.
Fed Holds Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Risks
At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted 11-1 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing persistent inflation above target and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced market expectations of limited easing in 2026.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.
FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty
December Meeting jumps to 27%5%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 FOMC meeting despite political pressure
October Meeting plunges to 63%15%
Despite public calls from former President Trump for an emergency rate cut, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment and reinforcing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 77%10%
At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut US interest rates
October Meeting plunges to 63%15%
President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on Fed Chair Powell ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reflecting its independence.
Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, including the Iran conflict. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent approach, and the updated dot plot signaled no rate cuts in 2026, reducing market expectations for further easing.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid political pressure for cuts
December Meeting plunges to 70%17%
Despite calls from former President Trump for an emergency rate cut, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. The Fed emphasized ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment, reinforcing expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates
In the lead-up to the March FOMC meeting, former President Trump publicly urged the Fed to convene an emergency meeting to cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure but the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting without emergency cuts.
Former President Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting to cut rates
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reflecting its independence.
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut US interest rates
December Meeting plunges to 12%21%
Former President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.
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