Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs, have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April FOMC meeting. Brokerage forecasts have converged on zero cuts for the remainder of 2026, reflecting policymakers’ caution over upside risks and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds now heavily favor a hold through year-end, consistent with futures pricing and the April dot plot’s median expectation of just one cut. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent core PCE data releases will provide the next key tests for any shift in the rate path.