Traders have priced an overwhelming 92% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained its 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range since late 2025 amid elevated inflation, with the April 2026 CPI print reaching 3.8% year-over-year on energy price pressures. April’s 8–4 decision to hold, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents, reinforced a data-dependent stance that prioritizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing. Solid labor-market readings, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have further anchored expectations for steady policy through mid-year. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.7%
$54,211 交易量
$54,211 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.7%
$54,211 交易量
$54,211 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,820 交易量
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,888 交易量
<1%
Other
$1,977 交易量
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced an overwhelming 92% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained its 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range since late 2025 amid elevated inflation, with the April 2026 CPI print reaching 3.8% year-over-year on energy price pressures. April’s 8–4 decision to hold, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents, reinforced a data-dependent stance that prioritizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing. Solid labor-market readings, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have further anchored expectations for steady policy through mid-year. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$54,211结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced an overwhelming 92% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained its 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range since late 2025 amid elevated inflation, with the April 2026 CPI print reaching 3.8% year-over-year on energy price pressures. April’s 8–4 decision to hold, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents, reinforced a data-dependent stance that prioritizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing. Solid labor-market readings, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have further anchored expectations for steady policy through mid-year. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$54,211结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced an overwhelming 92% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April, June, and July FOMC meetings because the Federal Reserve has maintained its 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range since late 2025 amid elevated inflation, with the April 2026 CPI print reaching 3.8% year-over-year on energy price pressures. April’s 8–4 decision to hold, accompanied by an unusually high number of dissents, reinforced a data-dependent stance that prioritizes upside inflation risks over near-term easing. Solid labor-market readings, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate, have further anchored expectations for steady policy through mid-year. The May CPI release due June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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