Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges, has anchored the 92.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the spring and summer FOMC meetings by reinforcing officials’ focus on upside inflation risks over near-term easing. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and April minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures persist, trader consensus reflects a data-dependent stance amid 4.3% unemployment and geopolitical oil impacts. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC decision represent key near-term tests, though a sharper disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward any rate cut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.4%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.0%
$54,197 交易量
$54,197 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.4%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.0%
$54,197 交易量
$54,197 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 交易量
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 交易量
1%
Other
$1,977 交易量
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges, has anchored the 92.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the spring and summer FOMC meetings by reinforcing officials’ focus on upside inflation risks over near-term easing. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and April minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures persist, trader consensus reflects a data-dependent stance amid 4.3% unemployment and geopolitical oil impacts. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC decision represent key near-term tests, though a sharper disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward any rate cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$54,197结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges, has anchored the 92.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the spring and summer FOMC meetings by reinforcing officials’ focus on upside inflation risks over near-term easing. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and April minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures persist, trader consensus reflects a data-dependent stance amid 4.3% unemployment and geopolitical oil impacts. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC decision represent key near-term tests, though a sharper disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward any rate cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$54,197结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges, has anchored the 92.5% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the spring and summer FOMC meetings by reinforcing officials’ focus on upside inflation risks over near-term easing. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025 and April minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures persist, trader consensus reflects a data-dependent stance amid 4.3% unemployment and geopolitical oil impacts. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16–17 FOMC decision represent key near-term tests, though a sharper disinflation surprise or labor-market deterioration would be required to meaningfully shift odds toward any rate cut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题