**Elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical oil shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 decisions, driving the 83.5% implied probability on “Other” sequences.** The target range stands at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 hold, with September 16 and October 28 meetings now the focus. Hotter core inflation readings and Brent crude above $80 have shifted consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes rather than the low-probability pause–pause–pause (13.5%) or cut-inclusive paths priced below 3%. Market-implied odds reflect real capital at risk, pricing in a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC amid sticky price pressures near double the 2% goal. The September dot plot and upcoming data releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 84%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut <1%
$757,477 交易量
$757,477 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
84%
Other 84%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut <1%
$757,477 交易量
$757,477 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$254,500 交易量
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$64,007 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,698 交易量
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,825 交易量
1%
Other
$322,960 交易量
84%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical oil shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 decisions, driving the 83.5% implied probability on “Other” sequences.** The target range stands at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 hold, with September 16 and October 28 meetings now the focus. Hotter core inflation readings and Brent crude above $80 have shifted consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes rather than the low-probability pause–pause–pause (13.5%) or cut-inclusive paths priced below 3%. Market-implied odds reflect real capital at risk, pricing in a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC amid sticky price pressures near double the 2% goal. The September dot plot and upcoming data releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$757,477结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical oil shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 decisions, driving the 83.5% implied probability on “Other” sequences.** The target range stands at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 hold, with September 16 and October 28 meetings now the focus. Hotter core inflation readings and Brent crude above $80 have shifted consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes rather than the low-probability pause–pause–pause (13.5%) or cut-inclusive paths priced below 3%. Market-implied odds reflect real capital at risk, pricing in a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC amid sticky price pressures near double the 2% goal. The September dot plot and upcoming data releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$757,477结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET**Elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical oil shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 decisions, driving the 83.5% implied probability on “Other” sequences.** The target range stands at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 hold, with September 16 and October 28 meetings now the focus. Hotter core inflation readings and Brent crude above $80 have shifted consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes rather than the low-probability pause–pause–pause (13.5%) or cut-inclusive paths priced below 3%. Market-implied odds reflect real capital at risk, pricing in a hawkish stance from Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC amid sticky price pressures near double the 2% goal. The September dot plot and upcoming data releases remain key swing factors that could alter the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题