Elevated inflation readings and Middle East-related supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting, with a 9–3 vote reflecting dissent favoring a hike. Solid economic growth, resilient productivity, and a stable labor market—evidenced by August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1 percent—have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect this backdrop, with "Other" outcomes (including potential hikes) at 62.5 percent and Pause–Pause–Pause at 33.5 percent, as traders weigh persistent core PCE inflation above 3 percent against upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions. Recent minutes and data releases underscore the Fed’s focus on price stability before any shift, with September’s outcome serving as the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,408 交易量
$748,408 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,408 交易量
$748,408 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,912 交易量
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,624 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 交易量
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 交易量
<1%
Other
$319,764 交易量
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and Middle East-related supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting, with a 9–3 vote reflecting dissent favoring a hike. Solid economic growth, resilient productivity, and a stable labor market—evidenced by August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1 percent—have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect this backdrop, with "Other" outcomes (including potential hikes) at 62.5 percent and Pause–Pause–Pause at 33.5 percent, as traders weigh persistent core PCE inflation above 3 percent against upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions. Recent minutes and data releases underscore the Fed’s focus on price stability before any shift, with September’s outcome serving as the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$748,408结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and Middle East-related supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting, with a 9–3 vote reflecting dissent favoring a hike. Solid economic growth, resilient productivity, and a stable labor market—evidenced by August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1 percent—have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect this backdrop, with "Other" outcomes (including potential hikes) at 62.5 percent and Pause–Pause–Pause at 33.5 percent, as traders weigh persistent core PCE inflation above 3 percent against upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions. Recent minutes and data releases underscore the Fed’s focus on price stability before any shift, with September’s outcome serving as the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$748,408结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETElevated inflation readings and Middle East-related supply shocks have kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5–3.75 percent through the July FOMC meeting, with a 9–3 vote reflecting dissent favoring a hike. Solid economic growth, resilient productivity, and a stable labor market—evidenced by August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1 percent—have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect this backdrop, with "Other" outcomes (including potential hikes) at 62.5 percent and Pause–Pause–Pause at 33.5 percent, as traders weigh persistent core PCE inflation above 3 percent against upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 decisions. Recent minutes and data releases underscore the Fed’s focus on price stability before any shift, with September’s outcome serving as the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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