Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting imminent and the July 28-29 decision following closely, market-implied odds of 94.5% for no change reflect trader consensus that restrictive policy remains appropriate given sticky core inflation near 2.9% and a resilient labor market. Recent minutes and dot-plot updates show limited appetite for near-term easing, with futures pricing only modest tightening risks later in 2026. A sharp moderation in energy-driven inflation or unexpected softening in employment data could still open the door to a 25 basis point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely before the July meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 95%
降低25个基点 2.4%
加息25个基点 2.1%
降息50个基点及以上 1.8%
$9,960,318 交易量
$9,960,318 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
2%
降低25个基点
2%
无变化
95%
加息25个基点
2%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
无变化 95%
降低25个基点 2.4%
加息25个基点 2.1%
降息50个基点及以上 1.8%
$9,960,318 交易量
$9,960,318 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$1,485,763 交易量
2%
降低25个基点
$1,096,151 交易量
2%
无变化
$1,666,239 交易量
95%
加息25个基点
$4,134,218 交易量
2%
上调50个基点以上
$1,578,419 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting imminent and the July 28-29 decision following closely, market-implied odds of 94.5% for no change reflect trader consensus that restrictive policy remains appropriate given sticky core inflation near 2.9% and a resilient labor market. Recent minutes and dot-plot updates show limited appetite for near-term easing, with futures pricing only modest tightening risks later in 2026. A sharp moderation in energy-driven inflation or unexpected softening in employment data could still open the door to a 25 basis point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely before the July meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$9,960,318结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting imminent and the July 28-29 decision following closely, market-implied odds of 94.5% for no change reflect trader consensus that restrictive policy remains appropriate given sticky core inflation near 2.9% and a resilient labor market. Recent minutes and dot-plot updates show limited appetite for near-term easing, with futures pricing only modest tightening risks later in 2026. A sharp moderation in energy-driven inflation or unexpected softening in employment data could still open the door to a 25 basis point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely before the July meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$9,960,318结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. With the June 16-17 FOMC meeting imminent and the July 28-29 decision following closely, market-implied odds of 94.5% for no change reflect trader consensus that restrictive policy remains appropriate given sticky core inflation near 2.9% and a resilient labor market. Recent minutes and dot-plot updates show limited appetite for near-term easing, with futures pricing only modest tightening risks later in 2026. A sharp moderation in energy-driven inflation or unexpected softening in employment data could still open the door to a 25 basis point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely before the July meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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