**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the July FOMC meeting (92.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance amid elevated inflation and a resilient labor market.** Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% with solid job gains, while inflation readings have remained above the 2% target, prompting a shift away from any easing bias at the upcoming June 16-17 meeting. Market-implied rate paths now see cuts as unlikely for the balance of 2026, with futures pricing limited volatility into the July 28-29 decision. This positioning aligns with official communications signaling data dependence and a higher bar for adjustments. Potential challenges include a significantly hotter June CPI release or sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators that could reopen debate on a 25 basis point move, though both scenarios currently carry low implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 93%
加息25个基点 4.0%
降低25个基点 2.7%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$9,794,828 交易量
$9,794,828 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
1%
降低25个基点
3%
无变化
93%
加息25个基点
4%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
无变化 93%
加息25个基点 4.0%
降低25个基点 2.7%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$9,794,828 交易量
$9,794,828 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$1,444,173 交易量
1%
降低25个基点
$1,068,388 交易量
3%
无变化
$1,623,678 交易量
93%
加息25个基点
$4,100,375 交易量
4%
上调50个基点以上
$1,558,219 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the July FOMC meeting (92.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance amid elevated inflation and a resilient labor market.**
Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% with solid job gains, while inflation readings have remained above the 2% target, prompting a shift away from any easing bias at the upcoming June 16-17 meeting. Market-implied rate paths now see cuts as unlikely for the balance of 2026, with futures pricing limited volatility into the July 28-29 decision.
This positioning aligns with official communications signaling data dependence and a higher bar for adjustments. Potential challenges include a significantly hotter June CPI release or sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators that could reopen debate on a 25 basis point move, though both scenarios currently carry low implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$9,794,828结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the July FOMC meeting (92.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance amid elevated inflation and a resilient labor market.**
Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% with solid job gains, while inflation readings have remained above the 2% target, prompting a shift away from any easing bias at the upcoming June 16-17 meeting. Market-implied rate paths now see cuts as unlikely for the balance of 2026, with futures pricing limited volatility into the July 28-29 decision.
This positioning aligns with official communications signaling data dependence and a higher bar for adjustments. Potential challenges include a significantly hotter June CPI release or sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators that could reopen debate on a 25 basis point move, though both scenarios currently carry low implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$9,794,828结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the July FOMC meeting (92.5%), reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance amid elevated inflation and a resilient labor market.** Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% with solid job gains, while inflation readings have remained above the 2% target, prompting a shift away from any easing bias at the upcoming June 16-17 meeting. Market-implied rate paths now see cuts as unlikely for the balance of 2026, with futures pricing limited volatility into the July 28-29 decision. This positioning aligns with official communications signaling data dependence and a higher bar for adjustments. Potential challenges include a significantly hotter June CPI release or sharp deterioration in labor-market indicators that could reopen debate on a 25 basis point move, though both scenarios currently carry low implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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