Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with firm labor market conditions and a 2.9% core reading, has produced the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the June 16-17 decision expected to maintain that stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, traders see limited scope for a shift so soon after. The June CPI release on July 14 and updated economic projections will serve as the main near-term catalysts, though a sharp deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility into the otherwise firm hold consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 93%
加息25个基点 5.5%
降低25个基点 1.9%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$9,352,402 交易量
$9,352,402 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
1%
降低25个基点
2%
无变化
93%
加息25个基点
6%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
无变化 93%
加息25个基点 5.5%
降低25个基点 1.9%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$9,352,402 交易量
$9,352,402 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$1,319,436 交易量
1%
降低25个基点
$1,040,279 交易量
2%
无变化
$1,396,618 交易量
93%
加息25个基点
$4,048,994 交易量
6%
上调50个基点以上
$1,547,265 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with firm labor market conditions and a 2.9% core reading, has produced the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the June 16-17 decision expected to maintain that stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, traders see limited scope for a shift so soon after. The June CPI release on July 14 and updated economic projections will serve as the main near-term catalysts, though a sharp deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility into the otherwise firm hold consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$9,352,402结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with firm labor market conditions and a 2.9% core reading, has produced the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the June 16-17 decision expected to maintain that stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, traders see limited scope for a shift so soon after. The June CPI release on July 14 and updated economic projections will serve as the main near-term catalysts, though a sharp deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility into the otherwise firm hold consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$9,352,402结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest since 2023—driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with firm labor market conditions and a 2.9% core reading, has produced the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the June 16-17 decision expected to maintain that stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh, traders see limited scope for a shift so soon after. The June CPI release on July 14 and updated economic projections will serve as the main near-term catalysts, though a sharp deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility into the otherwise firm hold consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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