Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East tensions has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. The resilient labor market, with May payrolls adding 172,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.3%, further supports trader consensus that the Fed will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range pending clearer disinflation signals. CME FedWatch futures and related instruments reflect this path, pricing limited odds of a 25 basis point move in either direction. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, along with the July 29 decision itself, represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor conditions weaken materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 94%
加息25个基点 3.3%
降低25个基点 2.8%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$9,873,424 交易量
$9,873,424 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
1%
降低25个基点
3%
无变化
94%
加息25个基点
3%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
无变化 94%
加息25个基点 3.3%
降低25个基点 2.8%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$9,873,424 交易量
$9,873,424 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$1,461,809 交易量
1%
降低25个基点
$1,082,181 交易量
3%
无变化
$1,641,098 交易量
94%
加息25个基点
$4,119,193 交易量
3%
上调50个基点以上
$1,570,264 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East tensions has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. The resilient labor market, with May payrolls adding 172,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.3%, further supports trader consensus that the Fed will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range pending clearer disinflation signals. CME FedWatch futures and related instruments reflect this path, pricing limited odds of a 25 basis point move in either direction. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, along with the July 29 decision itself, represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor conditions weaken materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$9,873,424结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East tensions has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. The resilient labor market, with May payrolls adding 172,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.3%, further supports trader consensus that the Fed will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range pending clearer disinflation signals. CME FedWatch futures and related instruments reflect this path, pricing limited odds of a 25 basis point move in either direction. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, along with the July 29 decision itself, represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor conditions weaken materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$9,873,424结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest in three years—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East tensions has anchored market-implied odds at 93.5% for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting. The resilient labor market, with May payrolls adding 172,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.3%, further supports trader consensus that the Fed will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range pending clearer disinflation signals. CME FedWatch futures and related instruments reflect this path, pricing limited odds of a 25 basis point move in either direction. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, along with the July 29 decision itself, represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor conditions weaken materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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