Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 94%
暂停–暂停–降息 5.0%
其他 1.8%
暂停–降息–暂停 <1%
$974,180 交易量
$974,180 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
94%
暂停–暂停–降息
5%
其他
2%
暂停–降息–暂停
<1%
按兵不动–降息–降息
<1%
连续三次按兵不动 94%
暂停–暂停–降息 5.0%
其他 1.8%
暂停–降息–暂停 <1%
$974,180 交易量
$974,180 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$37,371 交易量
94%
暂停–暂停–降息
$18,611 交易量
5%
其他
$219,605 交易量
2%
暂停–降息–暂停
$177,214 交易量
<1%
按兵不动–降息–降息
$521,379 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$974,180结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$974,180结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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