Lula holds a commanding position in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first-round race due to consistent polling leads of 38-43% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 33-37% range across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus/BTG, and AtlasIntel, with all other candidates in single digits. As incumbent seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from established party infrastructure, higher name recognition, and the polarized contest centered on his Workers' Party record versus the Liberal Party challenger. The official campaign launch in mid-August and start of free broadcast time have not shifted this dynamic meaningfully. Traders price scenarios such as a late surge by minor candidates or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters as low-probability events that could alter the first-round outcome before the October 4 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉 94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 6%
作家奥古斯托·库里 1.4%
克拉里亚纳·巴劳 <1%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
卢拉
94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
6%
作家奥古斯托·库里
1%
克拉里亚纳·巴劳
1%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
1%
萨玛拉
1%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
1%
雷南·桑托斯
1%
帕布罗·马沙尔
1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
泽马
1%
埃德米尔森·科斯塔
<1%
卢拉 94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 6%
作家奥古斯托·库里 1.4%
克拉里亚纳·巴劳 <1%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
卢拉
$1,700 交易量
94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$194 交易量
6%
作家奥古斯托·库里
$117 交易量
1%
克拉里亚纳·巴劳
$117 交易量
1%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
$117 交易量
1%
萨玛拉
$117 交易量
1%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
$117 交易量
1%
雷南·桑托斯
$117 交易量
1%
帕布罗·马沙尔
$117 交易量
1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
$317 交易量
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$117 交易量
1%
泽马
$197 交易量
1%
埃德米尔森·科斯塔
$259 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first-round race due to consistent polling leads of 38-43% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 33-37% range across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus/BTG, and AtlasIntel, with all other candidates in single digits. As incumbent seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from established party infrastructure, higher name recognition, and the polarized contest centered on his Workers' Party record versus the Liberal Party challenger. The official campaign launch in mid-August and start of free broadcast time have not shifted this dynamic meaningfully. Traders price scenarios such as a late surge by minor candidates or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters as low-probability events that could alter the first-round outcome before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
交易量
$3,603结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding position in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first-round race due to consistent polling leads of 38-43% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 33-37% range across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus/BTG, and AtlasIntel, with all other candidates in single digits. As incumbent seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from established party infrastructure, higher name recognition, and the polarized contest centered on his Workers' Party record versus the Liberal Party challenger. The official campaign launch in mid-August and start of free broadcast time have not shifted this dynamic meaningfully. Traders price scenarios such as a late surge by minor candidates or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters as low-probability events that could alter the first-round outcome before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$3,603结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETLula holds a commanding position in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first-round race due to consistent polling leads of 38-43% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 33-37% range across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus/BTG, and AtlasIntel, with all other candidates in single digits. As incumbent seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from established party infrastructure, higher name recognition, and the polarized contest centered on his Workers' Party record versus the Liberal Party challenger. The official campaign launch in mid-August and start of free broadcast time have not shifted this dynamic meaningfully. Traders price scenarios such as a late surge by minor candidates or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters as low-probability events that could alter the first-round outcome before the October 4 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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