Jeff Merkley’s position as the Democratic incumbent seeking a fourth term anchors trader consensus in this November 2026 contest. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by the party’s 14-point presidential margin in 2024, combines with Merkley’s primary victory of 93 percent and broad name recognition to support the 97 percent implied probability. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with no general-election polling yet available. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or unusually strong Republican turnout in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability given historical patterns and current fundamentals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-02
杰夫·默克利（民主党）
97%
大卫·布罗克·史密斯（共和党）
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
杰夫·默克利（民主党）
$3,650 交易量
97%
大卫·布罗克·史密斯（共和党）
$3,076 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Jeff Merkley’s position as the Democratic incumbent seeking a fourth term anchors trader consensus in this November 2026 contest. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by the party’s 14-point presidential margin in 2024, combines with Merkley’s primary victory of 93 percent and broad name recognition to support the 97 percent implied probability. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with no general-election polling yet available. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or unusually strong Republican turnout in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability given historical patterns and current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$6,726结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Jeff Merkley’s position as the Democratic incumbent seeking a fourth term anchors trader consensus in this November 2026 contest. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by the party’s 14-point presidential margin in 2024, combines with Merkley’s primary victory of 93 percent and broad name recognition to support the 97 percent implied probability. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with no general-election polling yet available. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or unusually strong Republican turnout in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability given historical patterns and current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,726结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETJeff Merkley’s position as the Democratic incumbent seeking a fourth term anchors trader consensus in this November 2026 contest. Oregon’s consistent Democratic lean, demonstrated by the party’s 14-point presidential margin in 2024, combines with Merkley’s primary victory of 93 percent and broad name recognition to support the 97 percent implied probability. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with no general-election polling yet available. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate health events, or unusually strong Republican turnout in rural areas could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain low-probability given historical patterns and current fundamentals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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