The district’s R+11 partisan lean and Darin LaHood’s incumbency form the primary drivers behind traders assigning the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability in the November 2026 general election. LaHood, whose family has long held the seat, advanced unopposed through the recent Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his party’s nomination without opposition. These uncontested primaries locked in a matchup consistent with historical base rates for solidly Republican rural northern Illinois districts, where incumbents typically retain strong advantages absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. No recent polling, fundraising surges, or candidate controversies have altered the established positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,479 交易量
$15,479 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
89%
民主党
12%
$15,479 交易量
$15,479 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$4,149 交易量
89%
民主党
$11,330 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s R+11 partisan lean and Darin LaHood’s incumbency form the primary drivers behind traders assigning the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability in the November 2026 general election. LaHood, whose family has long held the seat, advanced unopposed through the recent Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his party’s nomination without opposition. These uncontested primaries locked in a matchup consistent with historical base rates for solidly Republican rural northern Illinois districts, where incumbents typically retain strong advantages absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. No recent polling, fundraising surges, or candidate controversies have altered the established positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$15,479结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s R+11 partisan lean and Darin LaHood’s incumbency form the primary drivers behind traders assigning the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability in the November 2026 general election. LaHood, whose family has long held the seat, advanced unopposed through the recent Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his party’s nomination without opposition. These uncontested primaries locked in a matchup consistent with historical base rates for solidly Republican rural northern Illinois districts, where incumbents typically retain strong advantages absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. No recent polling, fundraising surges, or candidate controversies have altered the established positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,479结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s R+11 partisan lean and Darin LaHood’s incumbency form the primary drivers behind traders assigning the Republican nominee an 88.5% implied probability in the November 2026 general election. LaHood, whose family has long held the seat, advanced unopposed through the recent Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his party’s nomination without opposition. These uncontested primaries locked in a matchup consistent with historical base rates for solidly Republican rural northern Illinois districts, where incumbents typically retain strong advantages absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. No recent polling, fundraising surges, or candidate controversies have altered the established positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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