Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The southwest Chicago suburbs and DuPage County areas that comprise the district have shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, reflected in Casten's 2024 victory margin. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan assessments classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.8% implied probability. Limited polling and fundraising data since the primaries have shown no significant shift in positioning. Factors that could alter the outlook include a late national political realignment, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability scenarios absent new catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$39,638 交易量
$39,638 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
3%
$39,638 交易量
$39,638 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$16,926 交易量
94%
共和党
$22,712 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The southwest Chicago suburbs and DuPage County areas that comprise the district have shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, reflected in Casten's 2024 victory margin. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan assessments classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.8% implied probability. Limited polling and fundraising data since the primaries have shown no significant shift in positioning. Factors that could alter the outlook include a late national political realignment, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability scenarios absent new catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$39,638结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The southwest Chicago suburbs and DuPage County areas that comprise the district have shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, reflected in Casten's 2024 victory margin. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan assessments classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.8% implied probability. Limited polling and fundraising data since the primaries have shown no significant shift in positioning. Factors that could alter the outlook include a late national political realignment, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability scenarios absent new catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,638结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The southwest Chicago suburbs and DuPage County areas that comprise the district have shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, reflected in Casten's 2024 victory margin. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan assessments classify the seat as solidly Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the Democratic Party a 93.8% implied probability. Limited polling and fundraising data since the primaries have shown no significant shift in positioning. Factors that could alter the outlook include a late national political realignment, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout, though these remain low-probability scenarios absent new catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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