Democratic incumbent Sean Casten secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti emerged from her primary contest. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and holds Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent suburban voting patterns around Chicago and DuPage County. Casten's incumbency since 2019 and 2024 general-election performance provide structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter mobilization. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these baseline factors alongside limited recent polling or national headwinds that could alter the trajectory before November. A sustained Republican midterm surge, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout shifts among suburban independents represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,960 交易量
$32,960 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$32,960 交易量
$32,960 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$12,799 交易量
94%
共和党
$20,161 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Sean Casten secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti emerged from her primary contest. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and holds Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent suburban voting patterns around Chicago and DuPage County. Casten's incumbency since 2019 and 2024 general-election performance provide structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter mobilization. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these baseline factors alongside limited recent polling or national headwinds that could alter the trajectory before November. A sustained Republican midterm surge, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout shifts among suburban independents represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$32,960结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Sean Casten secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti emerged from her primary contest. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and holds Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent suburban voting patterns around Chicago and DuPage County. Casten's incumbency since 2019 and 2024 general-election performance provide structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter mobilization. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these baseline factors alongside limited recent polling or national headwinds that could alter the trajectory before November. A sustained Republican midterm surge, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout shifts among suburban independents represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,960结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Sean Casten secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote against challenger Joey Ruzevich, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti emerged from her primary contest. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and holds Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting consistent suburban voting patterns around Chicago and DuPage County. Casten's incumbency since 2019 and 2024 general-election performance provide structural advantages in fundraising, name recognition, and voter mobilization. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these baseline factors alongside limited recent polling or national headwinds that could alter the trajectory before November. A sustained Republican midterm surge, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high turnout shifts among suburban independents represent the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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