Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index, consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, and Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising lead, and the primary fragmentation among left-leaning challengers have further entrenched expectations of a wide margin. Republicans receive minimal implied probability, reflecting the district’s structural Democratic advantage and the narrow scenarios—such as an abrupt national shift or late candidate developments—that could realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$50,877 交易量
$50,877 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
2%
$50,877 交易量
$50,877 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$11,595 交易量
95%
共和党
$39,282 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index, consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, and Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising lead, and the primary fragmentation among left-leaning challengers have further entrenched expectations of a wide margin. Republicans receive minimal implied probability, reflecting the district’s structural Democratic advantage and the narrow scenarios—such as an abrupt national shift or late candidate developments—that could realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$50,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index, consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, and Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising lead, and the primary fragmentation among left-leaning challengers have further entrenched expectations of a wide margin. Republicans receive minimal implied probability, reflecting the district’s structural Democratic advantage and the narrow scenarios—such as an abrupt national shift or late candidate developments—that could realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,877结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith advanced from Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Doug Basler in the November general election for the 9th congressional district. The seat’s D+22 partisan voting index, consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, and Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Smith’s long tenure, substantial fundraising lead, and the primary fragmentation among left-leaning challengers have further entrenched expectations of a wide margin. Republicans receive minimal implied probability, reflecting the district’s structural Democratic advantage and the narrow scenarios—such as an abrupt national shift or late candidate developments—that could realistically alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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