Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's consistent Democratic tilt, anchored by Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, combined with her unopposed advance through the August 4 Democratic primary, underpins the 93% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican recruitment and historical margins exceeding 30 points. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,634 交易量
$24,634 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$24,634 交易量
$24,634 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$11,022 交易量
93%
共和党
$13,612 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's consistent Democratic tilt, anchored by Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, combined with her unopposed advance through the August 4 Democratic primary, underpins the 93% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican recruitment and historical margins exceeding 30 points. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$24,634结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's consistent Democratic tilt, anchored by Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, combined with her unopposed advance through the August 4 Democratic primary, underpins the 93% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican recruitment and historical margins exceeding 30 points. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,634结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan holds a commanding position in Virginia's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The district's consistent Democratic tilt, anchored by Richmond and surrounding Southside areas, combined with her unopposed advance through the August 4 Democratic primary, underpins the 93% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican recruitment and historical margins exceeding 30 points. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen national political shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability catalysts in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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